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To: Voltaire who wrote (12647)	4/13/2000 9:18:00 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

I"m going to have to sell some cc today on my JDSU shares which I really don't want to do, you know I got them at 55.

To: Voltaire who wrote (12647)	4/13/2000 9:18:00 AM
From: hivemind	Respond to of 35685

Another headfake and then slide? Or are we going to see a restoral of the houses' inventory? inquiring hiveminds want to know! (all predictions will be kept in strictest skepticism :) hivemind

To: Voltaire who wrote (12647)	4/13/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 35685

Vol -Did you read Cramers latest. He is the gloomiest I've ever seen. Well I must admit that I never thought that I would experience a 1929 style crash but it looks like we've got a big one just beginning. Well I suppose all those who have been predicting this are now happy at least for the moment. All those who have contributed to breaking the back of the market may not be quite so pleased when the other consequences of their so often expressed opinions come about. How about this little lot:- 1. Sell in May and go away. Great old saying and over thelast fwe years very accurate. For instance what happens now in a week or so's time and earnings season is over? Do you think the buyer will return or not? Would you go back in or not? 2. Now that sentiment is lets say a little dampened do you think that companies are going to do better or worse in the next quarter? Do you think Mr Greenspan and Mr Mayer are going to be satisfied now and resist further rate rises or not? My guess is that companies are not going to do quite so well in the June quarter. Now what do you think that will do to the market? There is nothing that I can see in the way of good news till at least October this year, if then. CSCO P/E is 170. Is that reassonable in this climate? Would a P/E of lets say 75 be excelent for CSCO in this market? QCOM P/E is over 200. Reasonable in this market? Wouldn't a P/E of lets say 90 be fantastic even for a company with the Q's prospects? 3. Now for Mr Klein. Did you see his interview on the Hill yesterday? He seems to me to be determined to break MSFT. All his language feel to me like he is out to get them. I guess we should be thankfull to Mr Klein since the case has held down the MSFT stock itself and so holders haven't suffered as badly as other stocks but the action has definately had an effect on the market in general. Sorry to be gloomy but looks to me like someone opened Pandoras box and the troulbe has just begun. I'll post this over on the Porch and see if there is anyone over there with some encouragement.... anything would do. Best regards, Sauve qui peut, L

To: Voltaire who wrote (12647)	4/13/2000 9:27:00 AM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Thoughts? April 13, 2000 IMF Says U.S.'s Overvalued Market Poses Global Threat to Economies By DAMIAN MILVERTON Dow Jones Newswires WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund said the U.S. stock market, which it believes is overvalued, poses a major threat to the global economy, a warning given added resonance by new volatility on Wall Street. Overall, the first of two IMF World Economic Outlook reports for 2000 paints a dramatically brighter picture of the global economy than that seen a year ago. IMF economists have broadly revised upward their forecasts for world growth from the previous outlook in October, citing continued strong growth in the U.S., improved conditions in Europe, the strong rebound of major Asian economies and a more optimistic outlook in Latin America. Read an advance copy of the World Economic Outlook report from the IMF Web site. Nasdaq Skids 7%, Pushing Tech Index Into a 'Bear' Market European Commission Issues Bullish Report on Economy (April 11) But the mismatched growth rates among the world's richest economies -- with the U.S. growing rapidly while Europe and Japan lag behind -- leave the door open to volatile currency and capital moves that could throw the global economy into a sudden recession, the IMF warned. As IMF economists were presenting their report, the Nasdaq Composite Index was on its way to its second-worst point loss in a single day, down 286.27 to 3769.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 161.95 to 11125.13. Despite Wednesday's decline, IMF Chief Economist Michael Mussa said high valuations of U.S. stock prices are "suggesting growing imbalances in the U.S. economy that make it appropriate" for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. In its latest global economic assessment, the IMF argued that while the surge in share prices around the world "may be justified" in part by the impact of new technologies on business, it just as likely may "reflect unrealistic expectations of future earnings growth." Overall, the IMF said "lopsided" growth among the world's leading economies presents the greatest risk to an otherwise-rosy global economic future. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers offered a similar assessment in a speech Monday, in which he outlined the U.S. approach to Saturday's meeting in Washington of finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations. Decisive, Appropriate Steps The IMF attributed the favorable outlook to decisive and appropriate policy steps, whether small interest-rate increases in the U.S. or the vast, new economic strategies forged in Asia and Latin America in response to recent crises. At the same time, potentially threatening "imbalances" are evident, most notably in the current-account positions within the G-7, the IMF said. "The process by which this widening of internal and external imbalances will ultimately be reversed is one of the major uncertainties facing the world economy," the IMF said. "Every effort needs to be made to ensure that this occurs in an orderly manner, rather than in an abrupt and discordant one." Based on current economic conditions, the IMF sees the world's combined gross domestic product growing 4.2% this year and 3.9% in 2001, compared with an estimated expansion of 3.3% in 1999. These figures were revised up from the previous economic-outlook forecasts for growth of 3.0% in 1999 and 3.5% in 2000. The U.S. growth outlook was revised up to 4.4% this year, compared with October's estimate of 2.6%. This was by far the largest revision -- in either direction -- for any economy from the October report, preserving the IMF's lengthy record of grossly underestimating the pace of U.S. economic performance. Japan's Recovery 'Fragile' Despite some "positive signs" in the Japanese economy, recovery there remains "fragile," the IMF said, forecasting GDP growth of 0.9% in 2000, compared with 0.3% in 1999. These estimates were revised down from last October's predictions of 1.0% and 1.5%, respectively. The growth rate in the euro currency bloc has been nudged up, but the envisaged expansion of 3.2% this year still pales alongside the heady American outlook. The euro area was estimated to have grown by 2.3% last year, and this year's forecast was revised up from 2.8% in the October World Economic Report. In Asia, the remarkable recovery from the crisis of 1997-98 continues, led by a 10.5% jump in South Korea's economy last year. "Growth in Korea is expected to moderate somewhat to around 7% [in 2000], roughly the same as in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan, while the economies of Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand are projected to strengthen by 3% to 5%," the IMF said. Stronger domestic demand and export growth are firing a recovery in many parts of Latin America, the IMF suggested, with a strong commitment within the region to sound monetary policies and fiscal reform likely to prolong this upswing. The latest World Economic Report has Argentina rebounding from an economic contraction of 3.1% last year to growth this year at 3.4%, while Brazil's GDP is seen up 4.0% in 2000. Chile and Mexico are seen growing strongly this year at rates of 6.0% and 4.5%, respectively.