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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (27757)	4/13/2000 11:14:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 63513

Gary,We have seen the 200 DMA in action repeatedly over the past several years. I think that we can see the logic that it would be OK and probably healthy for the NASD to decline below 3650 and hit the 200 dma near 3500, Especially as a move below 3650 would really get some fear into the market. I think that 3650 is a bit of a Trojan Horse or False level. It is important, no question since it was the prior low, but I certainly don't see it as disastrous to fall below it. It could provide a spring board for another upleg and a more balanced one. that said. Art Cashin was talking yesterday about a Thursday, Monday phenomena. We make a low today, but not a real severe one, we have a rally then into Friday that is not a barn burner, and then have another sell off on Monday to complete the pattern. That may hold. Peter Eliades pointed out last night that the NASD would have to decline 30% from here to return to it's 2 Year MA. 506 day MA. He has used the 506 DMA and 17.5% bands around it, to help establish trend lines for several years. I doubt that we have that in store but, It is worth being aware of. We will need to see more developing weakness, in the SPX and DJIA for that to develop. John