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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (833)	4/13/2000 12:24:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2850

ARBA is selling for 25 times 2002 Revenues, and is growing revenues, 321% Y/Y and 71% sequentially. They had a super positive conference call. Info below. I love your BRCM thoughts. I agree. Ventro (VNTR-$32-O) Introduces Fifth Vertical Mary Meeker/Marie Rossi VNTR has announced its entry into a new vertical. VNTR has founded Amphire, a JV in the food services industry, with several major food distributor organizations. VNTR has partnered with PriceWaterhouseCoopers in Europe. PWC will provide IT and consulting services to European companies that sign on to VNTR's life sciences marketplace. Amerinet, a leading general purchasing organization for the healthcare industry, has agreed to use Broadlane as its exclusive solution for healthcare e-commerce purchasing. We maintain our Outperform rating. Compuware (CPWR-$12-N) Downgrade to Neutral Chuck Phillips CPWR preannounced F4Q00 results. CPWR expects total revenue of $566-581MM vs. our estimate of $687MM and F4Q00 EPS of $0.13-0.15 vs. our estimate of $0.34. $140MM in 14 deals were in the plans for the last few days of the quarter, but most of the deals were not closed. We lower F2001E EPS from $1.54 to $0.80 and establish an F2002E EPS of $1.00. We downgrade CPWR from an Outperform to a Neutral rating. Compaq (CPQ-$26-O) Enterprise Pipeline Looks Good Gillian Munson We expect strong product news-flow over the next month. Our checks indicate CPQ has new 1u NT server, 1u Alpha server, storage product and Wildfire offerings on the way. We believe the enthusiasm level is high for Wildfire. Resellers indicate early orders for Wildfire is strong. We expect a mid-May launch. Resellers believe the 1u servers and new storage products will be introduced at CPQ's Reseller conference-4/25-26. We maintain our Outperform rating. We believe solid enterprise product buzz can potentially expand multiples as CPQ gains more enterprise respect. PMC-Sierra (PMCS-$148-O) Maintain Outperform Louis Gerhardy PMCS declined 10% yesterday. With the stock now below $150 we would notch-up our accumulation of PMCS. PMCS is now 40% off of its high and there is 52% upside to our target. We believe PMCS is one of the best investment vehicles for diverse exposure to a variety of broadband communications infrastructure applications. PMCS's products are found in remote access, transmission, and core and edge switch equipment. PMCS will report today and we expect a positive surprise and a strong outlook. Though dilution from 2 recent acquisitions will absorb some of the strength, we still expect a meaningful increase in our EPS estimates. We believe PMCS will exceed the 15% Q/Q revenue growth we are projecting for C1Q00. We maintain our Outperform rating. TranSwitch Corp(TXCC) is also a supplier of WAN ICs and the company reported a $0.02 positive EPS surprise and 20% Q/Q revenue growth yesterday. We believe PMCS will also exceed the 15% Q/Q revenue growth we are projecting for the quarter.PMCS offers investors one of the most proprietary and high quality revenue streams in the semiconductor industry. Redback Networks (RBAK-$96-O) C1Q00 Results; Maintain Outperform George Kelly RBAK reported C1Q00 EPS of $0.05, above our and the Street's $0.03 estimate. Revenue was $34.2MM, (up 31% Q/Q, 424% Y/Y) and higher than our 31.0MM estimate. RBAK added 40 new customers, ending with a total of 190 customers for C1Q00. New customers include Covad and PSINet. Top customers are Bell Atlantic (25% of revs) and GTE (12% of revs). The merger with Siara Systems is completed and is fully integrated with RBAK. We believe the Siara product will contribute to revenue in C2H00. We raise C2000E revenue from $151MM to $187MM and introduce C2001E revenue of $448MM. We maintain our Outperform rating and 12-month price target of $120. The target assumes a mid-40s multiple to C2001E revenue. Altera (ALTR-$82-SB) Positive Surprise; Maintain Strong Buy Mark Edelstone ALTR reported a positive C1Q00 earnings surprise. The upside was driven by stronger than expected Q/Q revenue growth of 15%, which exceeded our estimate of 12%. Demand was strong, and ALTR's distributors enjoyed book/bill's that exceeded 1.10. Due to the success of ALTR's new products and strong demand within ALTR's key end markets, ALTR's backlog grew. New products represented the largest portion of total revenue and continued to show strength during C1Q. New products grew 28% Q/Q and 187% Y/Y, and now equal 42% of total revenue. Apex revenue doubled Q/Q, and they should double again in C2Q00. We maintain our Strong Buy rating. Based on strong fundamentals, we believe ALTR will grow at least 15% Q/Q in C2Q, which will represent the 3rd consecutive quarter of double-digit Q/Q growth. Ariba (ARBA-$72-O) Strong Quarter; Reiterate Outperform Chuck Phillips/Mary Meeker ARBA reported strong F2Q00 results. ARBA produced 40% revenue upside to estimates and is reaching critical mass. Total revenue for the quarter increased 322% Y/Y and 71% Q/Q. This reminds us why it is the leader in B2B and separates itself from the pack. ARBA built backlog throughout F2Q and activity was very brisk in every month. We raise F2001E and F2002E revenue from $239MM and $355 to $339MM and $503MM, respectively. We reiterate our Outperform rating. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-$76-N) Strong C1Q Results Mark Edelstone AMD reported C1Q00 EPS of $1.10, exceeding our estimate of $0.65 and the consensus estimate of $0.58. The strong positive surprise was driven by strength across all of AMD's product lines. AMD benefited from strong consumer PC shipments in C1Q. Record microprocessor sales of 6.5MM units reflects great execution on the Athlon and K6-2. Flash continued to experience strong demand driven by cell phones. Continued recovery in Latin America and Asia business drove Q/Q growth in telephone line cards. We raise our C2000E EPS from $2.70 to $4.70 to reflect the strong broad-based demand and the expected better operating environment. We also introduce a C2001E EPS of $3.70. We maintain our Neutral rating. Electronics for Imaging (EFII-$56-SB) Reiterate Strong Buy Rebecca Runkle EFII reported ahead of expectations, with especially strong Stand-Alone Color Controller demand. We believe C2000 is the year of color. We expect Stand-Alone and Embedded Color to crank over next several quarters due to new products & increased market demand We believe EFII is on track to deliver strong results in C2000. We believe copier/printer unit volumes will remain strong, and as competition increases, we expect outsourcing trends to continue. We reiterate our Strong Buy rating. We believe EFII remains a outstanding play on digital and color trends in the office and print markets. AsiaInfo Holdings (ASIA-$44-O) Contract Win; Maintain Outperform G. Kelly/G. Kalra/Y. Koh China Mobile selected ASIA to build China's first wireless Internet backbone and 4th national commercial Internet backbone. We believe the contract win positions ASIA to capture share in the wireless Internet market. ASIA will provide billing and messaging software to support the services to be provided by China Mobile. ASIA will report C1Q00 results on 4/19. We will likely revise our estimates after the C1Q earnings results, when we expect to receive financial details of the contract. We maintain our Outperform rating. FileNet (FILE-$23-O) C1Q00 Results; Maintain Outperform Vinay Shah/Chuck Phillips FILE reported C1Q00 EPS of $0.18, above our and consensus estimates of $0.15, due to lower operating expenses. Revenue was $92.8MM (up 13.9% Y/Y), slightly above our forecast. Software revenue exceeded our expectations while services revenue was lower. FILE expects total Web Content Management revenue to reach $45MM in C2000, up 50% from C1999. We maintain our Outperform rating. Gastronics (GSNX-$29-O) EPS Surprise Jay Deahna/Steven Pelayo GSNX reported F2Q00 (Mar) positive EPS surprise of $0.23, beating our estimate of $0.20 and the consensus of $0.18. GSNX received strong bookings from its core customers in the US and Europe. We maintain our Outperform rating and 12-month price target of $53. PC Hardware & Data Storage: Industry Update Gillian Munson While performance hasn't been consistent, our group has held up pretty well in the last 2 weeks. Gateway, Quantum HDD, and EMC have done particularly well vs. the 15% MSH decline. We continue to be upbeat about the PC, enterprise storage, and Internet Device markets. Despite recent sentiment we believe core positives are in tact. Seven stocks we cover are down more than 10% in 14 days. These include Adaptec (-28%), Apple (-20%), Brocade (-29%), Palm (-33%), Read-Rite (-22%), Quantum DSS (-12%), and Western Digital (-17%). Of these, Apple, Brocade, and Palm have solid stories and very positive fundamentals. We would be buyers of these stocks as negative psychology bottoms.