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Technology Stocks : Vignette Corporation (VIGN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (343)	4/13/2000 1:53:00 PM
From: Wizard	Respond to of 628

>>The most money I've lost has been believing management teams when business doesn't come through that it's just a short term single incident and that things would get better "next quarter." Agreed - that is the hardest thing in this business, I think. Deciding when a stumble (in the business not the stock price) is a stumble and not death. I think the best way to play this virtually impossible question is to sell and come back once the business momentum becomes apparent. Cisco's business stumbled, AOL has stumbled, YHOO's stock stumbled not long after going public but I think that was more sentiment toward the category than an actual business stumble. Siebel has still not stumbled although the stock did in 1997 when the market got hit and then Clarify stumbled badly. Peoplesoft and Baan both died. PMCS stumbled way back when and then recovered. Ciena stumbled and recovered. Stumbles mean you lose 70%+. However, the upside if they recover is multiple-fold. The time to buy is when there is a stock stumble and the business just keeps on cranking. That is where we are with many companies right now. I see no slowing in the growth of internet software. Accrue, a second tier player, just put up some nice num's. I doubt this is a franchise software company being built but when tier 2 does well, you know the business is healthy. BTW Dave, my contacts say Art is gaining traction. I have been long Art for a while now.