Hello Jim,
> Question for you. This is just a thought I had.
> With the world becoming more wireless and internet
> connected, what is there to keep people from connecting
> to their needed computing power through a wireless
> connection in the future and doing any computing > remotely?
There is nothing to stop this ... and it will be done. It is one path that is moving forward and will continue to evolve.
In some cases, this is a very logical step for the "PDA" types of applications ... but obviously not in all cases. For example, today I am writing and using WAP applications that are accessible from a WAP cell phone. These applications can provide basic functionality, but no "rich" content. I can get basic address-book, yellow/white pages, and even simple directions and maps. The issue becomes the UI on a PDA ...
Think about reading and writing SI posts on a PDA. It's not so bad to read, except that the screen size is very limiting and you are constantly scrolling. It's not so easy to write, unless you have some alternative UI ... maybe a "fold-out" keyboard or voice recognition.
Then, you move to wanting to view rich content ... and you truly start to see the current limitations. Try to access a web site with "Macromedia Shockwave" or "Flash" and you are probably out of luck for a while. If you move to web sites built for IE and ActiveX, then you are also in trouble.
So yes, you have some basic capabilities, but they have limitations that must be overcome. And so the PDA and Cell Phone vendors are actively working to overcome these. With the Quartz, from Symbian, you have a platform that provides a better display, and even Java support.
Now another issue is for people with "wireless access" readily available. Certainly in most cities, and densely populated areas this is easier, but it's not everywhere. So vendors creating these smaller devices have to decide "What functionality do I have or lose when out of range?"
This starts to move to an area where more "cache" or storage might be required. And now, you'll want "applications" in the device ... not just "web access".
In all of this comes another constant "background" issue ... and that is back-up and replication of data. Yes, you could keep all information backed up to a "net service" that you trust, but in the near term it will more likely be a home PC, laptop, or "home server". I do not see people "dropping" PCs any time soon. They provide the "rich" experience and interaction.
So this *does* appear to be the direction that the PDA and Cell Phone vendors are taking ... not a direct competition to the PC, but a "companion" to the PC.
> Wouldn't that negate the need for a portable CPU?
Ok ... maybe in a sense, however what happens if the PC can be reduced down to the size of a PDA? I don't want to argue at this point if it is possible, and I don't want to argue the cost issues ... I just want to ask "What if?" (I'll be more than glad to discuss the trends in this area in detail later ... ;-)
So *if* PCs become smaller and smaller, then due to compatibility, they would gain from the wealth of applications and compatible operating systems. They have extensive peripherals, and they have the advantage of being an evolutionary step from the current laptops of today.
So *if* a PC becomes small and cost effective enough to compete ... why would I carry a PDA or a cell phone? There are serious people, with serious amounts of money working on exactly this ...
I believe that there is some agreement that PDAs (and even Cell Phones) require a PC to be a "complete" solution. I backup my cell phone weekly to my PC to preserve all the numbers and information that I have stored. I sync my Palm almost daily. But I don't really have a "desktop" computer any more ... I use my laptop for everything. So the laptop/PC, with the breadth of applications, IMHO is not going away ... and it's not going to stagnate either.
I see these two "battles" being fought and both sides are pushing to provide a solution - the PDA/Cell Phone camp, and the PC camp. There will be no clear winner ... it's not that one will *kill* the other (although I think that the Cell vendors will "kill" the PDA market ...) but that they will continue to merge and work together.
> It will take a serious amount of time to develop truly
> wearable computers, and wireless is expanding rapidly.
So one issue would be the definition of "wearable" computer. Obviously there are already wearable computers that exist today, and companies like Xybernaut have shipping products. The issues will be size and price point. Other vendors that I have talked to, such as Dell and Compaq, have demonstrated extremely small PCs, and the laptops are always becoming smaller with the newer chip sets. So if you are looking for a full PC the size of today's Palm ... it will be longer. But if you are looking for "small enough" for the market that will be interested ... one that is already carrying around laptops ... then I think it will be much sooner. I'm curious what you would see as a "serious amount of time" ... is that a year? Or five years? I'm just interested in your perspective of time ...
As for wireless, I am *big* on wireless ... I love the stuff! I am deeply involved in some ventures that are working with 802.11b and I think that people don't yet realize just what is coming. This is the stuff that Apple and Lucent are pumping out to market. Both Lucent and Intersil are producing the chip sets that are being used ... and the various vendors (Apple, Lucent, Cabletron, 3Com, Nokia, Nortel, Dell, Compaq, Samsumg, Seimens, GVC, etc.) are all just starting to ship products in volume ... many just this month! This is one technology that is "color blind" to the computing platforms ... 802.11b is going to be available for desktops, laptops, servers, routers, PDAs, etc. 11Mbps short-range pico-cellular ... very cool stuff ...
So I guess that those who want to say that PDAs and Cell Phones will "eliminate" or "destroy" any of the markets which evolve from laptops, IMHO, are not thinking about the implications of what they are saying. Laptops will not just fall off the earth ... Windows is not going away ... Linux is not going away ... and so the people who want these operating systems to be available where ever they are will push the evolution of the laptop further and further ... IMHO.
Scott C. Lemon |
