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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Reaper who wrote (70489)	4/13/2000 4:41:00 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Why do you assume interest rates will go up ? Jon. eom.

To: The Reaper who wrote (70489)	4/13/2000 6:47:00 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

kk- Where is Batapaglia???????? Help OK Cramer is right this time. P/Es are in fashion again. .coms ...I just over looked that Phone.com has .com at the end of it. I thought of it as a sort of companion to the Q and helping stimualte the market but just take a look at itts valuation. Market cap of $4bn and revenues of $31m. Broadcom. Take a look at that... a market cap of $30bn or thereabout and revenues of $500m and OK a growth rate of over 130% but even so $30bn. We have all been in a trance. I used to think that all the doom-mongers on CNBC didn't know what they were talking about. One of them last week said to get the hell out as that was the highest the market would get. I laughed.. I thought he was just another talking head. Well maybe he didn't really know any more than any of the rest of us but he has been right on the button. Can't remember his name.. youngish fund manager..last week on CNBC. Many peoples portfolios are devastated and Greenspan shows not the slightest inkling of easing up his attacks. I never thought that I would live through a real market crash but this is it this time. Not a sliver of good news around and its now second only to 1929....great. PLs tell me why there should be any serious buyig interest over NAZ 2,500. One of my colleagues was going on at me a few weeks ago saying that the NAZ had to fall to 2,500 and I laughed at him. I'm not laughing now. Best regards, L

To: The Reaper who wrote (70489)	4/13/2000 6:59:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Re: P/E ratios. Net present values are non-linear functions and as the rates of increase in cash flow generation increase, the inaccuracy of using a linear P/E formula increases. Here is an example math exercise. Assume you have a company that earns $1 per share now, has a 50% annually compounded growth rate for the next five years, 25% for the following five years, and a terminal value at the end of year 10 of a good old-fashioned 15x trailing earnings. If your risk adjusted cost of capital was 15%, how much would you pay for this? Answer: right around $122-$127 (depending on annual vs. quarterly compounding.) A zero growth company should have a P/E greater than zero - like the inverse of one's risk-adjusted capital rate for that company. (Maybe 10-12% if stable like a utility, which would be a P/E of 8.333 to 10% at zero growth). Reason tells you that a high growth company may not continue such rates forever; but the Gorilla Game outlines the math basis for why gorillas like QCOM and CSCO can maintain the growth for a lot longer than say a one shot wonder dot.com. There is potential for Q to grow EPS faster than 50% in the next few years, IMO. Such is the scalability of owning essential IPR in a tornado market, and the scalability in the ASIC business. (At least that's what the thought process is. On ASIC's, see AMD's CC on how just a 10% sales bonus rendered a doubling of their profits.) Hope this helps - but these P/E "rules of thumb" are an incredibly inaccurate valuation technique.

To: The Reaper who wrote (70489)	4/14/2000 12:38:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

re: even short some of these dotcoms When it starts to look easy to short, most the time it's not. Shorts now should be daytrades. Now is not the time for a trending short. The market could explode on you, so beware and use stop losses. I starting to hearing more and more about people going to cash, and investors talking about shorting, BOZO turning into OZOB and shorting. One of the nicer changes I'm seeing is talk of PE, PEG, valuation. Greg