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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (23861)	4/13/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Stuart T	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

"buying on dips and selling on peaks is still the answer" Since everyday seems to be a bigger dip than the day before, how do you distinguish a market downturn from a dip? :) Was the 5 minute rally this morning the peak? Can I borrow some of those DVDs? Maybe we need to do some research on "High Paying" money market funds and ultra short term bond funds. [ {Edit} Average maturity on utra short bond funds is around 1.5 years and earns around 3 - 5% annual. REITS sound better ] Watching and not trading

To: Rande Is who wrote (23861)	4/13/2000 7:44:00 PM
From: ~digs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Rande, while I certainly didn't 'cuss' you out after having read that post... I strongly disagree with your belief that we will significantly penetrate the Nasdaq's 200 dma (which as of today's close is at 3499). On the contrary, I believe that the index itself will trade relatively sideways in conjunction with the level of the 200 dma... until rampant tech speculation returns to our markets (my guess is about September). People will have to have nearly forgotten about current market pains before the big bull returns... and since we're on internet time now... I'd say about six months. By then we'll each be enthusiastic again about our tech companies and how 'cool' some of them really are. P/E ratios will once again be thrown out the window... as everybody dreams about what a big productivity impact these companies are having on our economy. Year over year increases in revenue will once again become the dominant company fundamental that investors will focus upon. I honestly think it could be another 2-3 years before actual earnings become the primary issue relative to a technology company's valuation. By and large, people are just too giddy about the prospects of their favorite tech company for them not to be bid up continuously during these bullish surges. Yes it seems like a lot of investors don't feel that way at this very moment, while the Nasdaq incurs a healthy correction... but in the not too distant future, I think this whole 'blip' will be close to forgotten (giving way to speculative fever... once again... AND the subsequent sharp correction). "Two steps forward... one step back." That pretty much sums up my belief with regards to a long term bull market. My biggest question is what inning are we in? I'm thinking like 3 or 4, provided that the boomers keep spending, and that things around the world remain mostly stable. You also mentioned some hypothetical price targets for a few big caps once we've bottomed out... I semi-agree with most of them... but I definitely do not see CSCO making it to the low forties, nor do I see QCOM at 65. CSCO, now one of the largest companies in the world... would thus have their market cap cut nearly in half when compared to its highs... without a change in fundamentals... I just don't see that happening. Also, take a look at QCOM's relative strength during this recent correction we've been receiving. I believe there are two reasons for that... number one: QCOM was a high flyer of 99, and did not continue its ascent during this new year... and so, much of its consolidation has already occurred. Secondly... their patented technology is going to be the broadband wireless standard... and everybody knows it will translate into HUGE earnings eventually... so people will be buying on weakness. In short, QCOM's future is not nearly as uncertain as some of these biotech and other such companies... and I think their relative strength lately helps prove my point. [Disclosure: I have never held a position in either CSCO or QCOM] Just some thoughts... sorry about the long post. Regards, Dave P.S. The last time the Nasdaq broke its 200 dma to the downside was late August of 1998 when Nasdaq dipped below 1750. It remained underneath it for less than two months.