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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (64523)	4/13/2000 6:14:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, actually we're not as far off as you think. Our minds are in synch, but somehow our timing got mixed up by maybe a week or two, or maybe as much as two months. As you know I'm a hyper-active trader (more than 10+ a day typically). I'm trying to cut down, but this market has been presenting too many opportunities. As such my time horizon can be very short and I'm willing to change my portfolio makeup dramatically if need be. If we do see a great buying op in OSX issues I won't hesitate to take it. I just don't think the short term reward justifies holding during a tech correction. My E&P's holdings are still laggards for the most part (PXD, BSNX, FST). I have OEI and VPI too, but I've trimmed over time. Believe me I have been selling into strength. I didn't want to sell ANY E&P's till summer, but we got a pretty good run. I've been out of XTO and recently OXY because I trimmed. I made great money, but I didn't get out at the top (especially considering I had lots of calls of each). I only sold both because calls take up too much buyer power and I doubled my money on both. XTO will hit 25 and OXY will hit 30+ imho. I would like to hold my E&P's at least through earnings season. Afterward I'll probably be 60% OSX, 40% E&P. I will use margin to buy any OSX names at a discount such as FLC at 16-17, KEG at 8, PGO sub 15 etc. I'm still 40% OSX issues here (FGH, PGO, HOFF, SESI, NR, PKD, KEG and GW - all laggards except for KEG imho). I just think ANY stock that's appreciated considerably will be subject to profit taking if the NASDAQ gives us a scare. SLB, BJS, and virtually all of the drillers look overextended TA wise. Yes the fundamentals are there and these issues will see buying if your targets are reached, but it might get bloody for 1 or 2 days first. The OSX may form a pendant here, but it may also form a H/S pattern soon if it goes below it's 50 dma. We'll know within a week or two at most. How many tech investors will want to hold over the weekend. We still have not seen capitulation. I agree we do bounce soon in techs, but if we don't see capitulation then we're likely to make new lows again later. QQQ stochastics are almost back to 0. The 200 dma on QQQ is still about 10% away and on the Nasdaq it's at least 5% away. We've had several 5-7% loss days on the Nasdaq. I think it might take a 15-20% down day to really shake the tree. Not saying it's going to happen, but it's possible. That would be an interday low and I think we'd close down 5% or less. I want spare cash to play some of these tech bounce. I'm out of CSCO, but I may continue to day trade it. It looks good at 50 to 55, NITE at 30-33. A few others.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (64523)	4/13/2000 6:43:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, a few more points... As always you have excellent observations. Typically in the past when I haven't taken profits enough and you're simultaneously calling for me to do so...I've regretted it. >> I am selling my mid cap E&P's here because this looks, feels and smells just like last Aug-Sept...<< Except now techs are correcting vs before they were draining every last dollar from value stocks. What about rotation? It's happened to a degree, but we're still not at fair value with the E&P's. Also there was disbelief in high oil prices/OPEC compliance. We've now seen oil come back from $34 to $23. We've also seen that OPEC holds the cards. I agree the E&P's have less long term upside, but I think you're a little early on your rotation call. The technicals favor new highs in NG vs a pullback to 2.50 imho especially going into peak season. Overall, the risk/reward ratio still favors the beaten down E&P's and mini-majors over the next month or two - unless we get OSX 90-100 again, then I may be in your camp on selective issues. Either way we'll both make money imho.