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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (46894)	4/13/2000 7:14:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, i wish i knew...i suppose it's possible. but since that would be a rare, generational event it would be foolish to try to predict it. i would certainly agree that the climate preceding the decline, which was one of greedy panic buying, and the climate accompanying the decline so far (utter complacency) are ideal set-ups. i am playing the possibility month after month with cheap far ootm puts. perhaps we should not ask why would it happen NOW, but rather why should it NOT happen? as you have pointed out on your web site, a host of indicators has implied the possibility for quite some time now. one thing that strikes me as peculiar, as oversold as the Nasdaq is, is the sheer speed and size of the decline thus far. this is NOT a garden variety correction, that much is certain. perhaps it will play out as a two-stages BK a la Nikkei 1990, with the decline not compressed into a few days, but after the next rally something of a Chinese water torture where prices just keep drifting lower on pretty good momentum. every bubble ends in its own way... regards, hb