To: Rande Is who wrote (23865 ) 4/13/2000 11:09:00 PM From: American Spirit Read Replies (2) | Respond to
I disagree a little with the prevailing attitude. True much damage has been done this week but look at the obvious, it's tax-paying time. Plus some margin calls for many. But the truth is that the tech bubble no longer exists. Take any tech stock as an example. Find one that's still overvalued. I can't. Therefore, in a matter of days there will be a tech rally, and then another and another. techs are oversold as hell. Shorts and panic sellers believe (rightfully so to a degree) that tax-day selling will mute any recovery. But there is now a massive amount of cash on the sidelines. Old economy stocks are back to true valuations. Where are the 50-100% gains going to come from now? Beaten down techs. Just look across the board. Nearly everything tech is sitting at or below its recent low base price. And some of them are real values. IBM at 110, CSCO in the 50's, SUNW below 80, LOR at 9, FATB with a less than 100 mill market cap, UIS at 22+, retailers at recent lows, and the dot-coms down in the dumps. Any dot-com with a rosy future is particularly undervalued. CMGI at 67? I call the bottom tomorrow morning first thing as the last panic selling takes place. Buy then if you have the cash. But the market usually surprises and there may even be a rally in the morning believe it or not. We'll see. Basically the big boy shorts combined with tax day selling have taken us all the way down. If LU hits 52 it's the bottom. Watch it. It's at 53+ now. That means maybe a 2% drop maximum from here IMHO. Anyone who sells first thing tomorrow is a sheep wanting to be slaughtered. If I had the cash I'd do my buying for the year. Also, the traditional dip in May is now superseded by a sharper than normal April downturn. Last year the market went Up on tax day as I remember. Therefore tax day doesn't necessarily mean down.
