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To: Eric Wells who wrote (100461)4/13/2000 7:59:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>When I have any position in a stock, when that position declines in value, I interpret it as "losing money." And when I lose money, I evaluate whether I think my money will earn a greater return in the current position or perhaps in another position. And if I believe another position will offer a greater return, then I move my money to that other position. Realizing losses in my mind (even if they are only on paper) helps me, at least, retain a firm grasp on reality.

I think of my stocks going down as beach balls being pushed underwater. As long as they remain whole (investment proposition is sound) it's only a matter of time before they pop back to the surface. If I sell out I lose that compression. I have Sal Hanash to thank for that analogy. He wrote a great piece about the concept when he was still in college.

The only time I will sell out a position is a trade for tax-loss purposes.



To: Eric Wells who wrote (100461)4/13/2000 11:41:00 PM
From: Randy Ellingson  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 164684
 
Declining asset value - losing money - to me it's the same. It may not be to you.

OK, so every day the portfolio goes up, you make money (assuming a long shares portfolio), and everyday the portfolio goes down, you lose money. It just seems short-sighted, since we know that markets fluctuate, and asset values with them.

How do you think this chart will look in another 50 years?

quote.yahoo.com^SPC&d=my

Do you see danger ahead? I.e., do you agree with today's comment by Greenspan (where can I find the text for that, to provide a proper quote?) that there are "enough" careful and intelligent investors to assure that in the long run, capital is efficiently allocated?

One last thing -- isn't it really remarkable the way the market can sway so convincingly from one attitude (e.g., euphoria that "stock prices will climb, and climb, and climb, like this for a long time yet") to the opposite ("we're going down, and down some more, and down some more, and we might just never really stop going down")? A friend of mine pointed out a couple years ago that "there will always be opportunities to buy stocks of even the greatest companies at excellent prices" -- and IMO, he's always going to be right. But sometimes it seems like valuations will not offer the opening a prospective buyer wants (market climbing strongly). And then the complex system of buyers and sellers works in just the opposite direction.

I'd worry if I didn't have the luxury of time and confidence in my companies. The economy seems to be in excellent health, though I suppose there are a number of effects which could develop either at once or in succession to bring trouble at any time. Impossible to predict the if and when of that though, isn't it? There's always a group predicting just about everything.

Randy