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Non-Tech : JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wade who wrote (321)	4/14/2000 11:16:00 PM
From: Marc Newman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 371

The Red Chip recommendation got some press on CBS Marketwatch today. JAKK is acting great. What do you guys think? To $25 within ten days? If the market is flat to up of course. Ray's TA: Long Term: JAKK is in a long term uptrend. The only caveat here is the fact JAKK hasn't trade for many years, so the analysis is somewhat limited. But since it has been trading, the action is good. On a weekly chart, the stock has major support at $16 and is above its long term trendline. Short Term: This analysis must be put in respect with two things: the market and the industry group. The Leisure Toy/Game industry group is the worst performer of the 200 industry groups S&P covers over the past 14 weeks. Stocks are heavily influenced by industry group moves, so this overhang could stymie any advances. Second, the market, you are well aware of. The Nasdaq is still in a bear market. Take a gander at a 6 month chart on the Nasdaq and graph a simple 18 and 50 day moving average. Notice the 18 day has crossed below the 50 day moving average. You need to see the 18 day cross back above the 50 day before we can be sure the market is gaining strength (and my own opinion, this won't happen until at least October or November of 2000). Now, having dispensed with the caveats, the individual stock chart actually has improved considerably over the past few weeks. If you draw a trendline from the high of 10/26/99 through the highs of 12/6/99, 1/6/00, and 2/11/00, you see a series of lower highs and lower lows JAKK has formed. This is bearish, but that trendline was broken to the upside on 4/6/00 (interesting the turning points occur around the 6th of each month). Since the base low of 3/13/00, JAKK has formed a series of higher lows and higher highs, a bullish sign. The stock is currently resting at its 200 day moving average, which it needs to hold to maintain the current strength. The rallies in February and March were attempts to break above the 200 day moving average but both failed. The current one has staying power. JAKK needs to break $24 on good volume and close 2 consecutive days above it. If it manages to, the stock should rise to $28, having taken out the most significant overhead supply at or below $24. For short term trading (if I were buying Nasdaq stocks, even though I am not right now), I would buy at or near the 18 day moving average so long as the stock holds above it. The 18 and 50 day moving average crossed below the 200 day moving average back in January and now are on their way back up above it. The 18 day is almost above it which should bode well for the short term. -----< Net, net, JAKK's long term is bullish and short term is improving. The fundamentals, though not discussed here, are impressive, showing consistency and expectations for more growth. In my opinion, once $24 is taken out, JAKK should run. The biggest risk is the market and industry group. Hopefully they will improve to better JAKK's chances of success. Conservatively Yours, Raymond J. Norris