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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (46134)	4/13/2000 11:57:00 PM
From: 10K a day	Respond to of 99985

I Did Miss the Captain!

To: HairBall who wrote (46134)	4/14/2000 10:01:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Hi LG; I was on a vacation..in spite of this sell off I'm up for the month and converted most of my bull spreads to cash , I have not been active shorting as I was to busy..I do have a few puts and some of them are already up 800%.. My bull call spreads were leaps bought last OCT NOV DEC so most of them converted to cash OK. I still have a few out in 2002, while i see this as a bad sell off..it will last about 5 to 6 weeks from the highs, then another 6 to 8 weeks and most of the "Leaders" will be back where they were..but a lot of the trash type net.coms won't. ---------------- Trash type are the ones ( look at insider ) who have seeded the stock price by buying one anothers shares hell 2/3rd the income they reported was because of the other stock price going up..what happens to them. While CNBC said they were mostly free from debt..they didn't point out all the restricted shares that had been lt out..which is the same thing as debt. ------------------ People talk about high PEs..and "margin" but they haven't been pointing at the "HIGH DEBT LEVEL"...in most cases it's 3 times higher than it was before 96.. ------------------- In the old days if a company had over 30% debt to equity we would shun it..well it' got to no problem for people to buy this hot stuff at even 150% debt to equity.."insane" if a company falters as the stock holders are left with zero.. --------------------- I have a lot of home work to catch up on so I can't call a bottom..I was not concerned much till this week but the Dollar Volume INDEX I made up looks really rough..over 15% down in 4 days.. ----------------- The intraday lows are not nearly as importent as the end of day prices..as end of day controls the NAVS of most of the funds..( where most of the money is ) & that keeps making lower lows.. ---------------- I had a few puts that I thought were no good a week ago , but now I'm glad I held them.

To: HairBall who wrote (46134)	4/16/2000 10:02:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

HI LG; Have you looked at the Comp lately ? quote.yahoo.com^dja&d=b The chart don't do it justice as it doesn't show the last leg down to where it's now at ( below 3000). What it does show is a very clear down trend..starting a year ago..... How about the 1600+ in good old trusty Value Line... quote.yahoo.com^VLIC&d=2ym There is a two year bear market for you.. ----------------- I shouldn't say more but I will, Last year I figured the market would churn but go ahead and go up for a few more years ( ie yr 2007 to 2012 ) at that point pension funds will need money for the Generation X people going into retirement. I may have got the demographics wrong , it seems as prices climbed on the techs and pushed up the S&P because of market cap weighting the money managers themselves were charmed into taking on more and more obligations. ---------------------- You and I know there is no real " money reserve" in the stock market..not a cent; the crap is just worth what some sucker will pay for it. But what is in &tied to the stock market is about 150 Trillion Dollars worth of "real obligations" that must be paid in the not to distant future..it seems looking at the "broad" picture the obligations due have been mounting faster than the broad range of stocks they depend on can go up. The Naz and Tech are not the heart of the market..thats bull shit, the heart is where all the pension funds put their dollars years ago.. all those obligations.. If they were wise enough to get 30% tech they will still have to sell it, there is no way out "if the other stocks stay in a bear market"; it spills over and eventually kills them all & that's a fact. Any new money they get will soon have to be paid not to some broker to buy stocks..but to fund the retirement claim backlog..I think we may have entered that stage to some degree already.. For this market to make new highs, the low PE and value stocks need to make a strong come back, but it's looking dimm now..to much damage has been done. People need to understand there is no new/old economy stocks which are independent of one another..via funds pension as well as insurance the whole gang is tied together..and for the broad averages to stay in bear mode will kill the availability of money to find it's way to the so called new stuff..that kind of transition never happens successfully at tops..the only way it can is at bottoms or if every thing crashes. ------------------------------------ It's a liquid problem, while every one is hyping margin calls Crap margin aint a pimple to the Debt and obligations that all the various trusts have to pay out by trying to sell some stock to meet other obligations.. In other words retirement money managers invested all the "rent" money..in a market that turned bear on them -------------------- We should do some sort of rally, and I can't tell where the bottom is eventually going to be ( or if there is even going to be one ) what I can tell is the top is in for a long time, the only way it can make any new high is if the dollar falls so bad and inflation takes off so bad to where stocks look cheap at any price. All the trusts now need inflation to pay off their obligations with cheaper money. But right now we are getting a lesson in the value of hard cash, & some one better listen. ------------------- A rally yes but recovery no.."recovery means getting back to the last high"..The value line hasn't done that in two years..the Comp in a year..and with all the jive of the wall street shysters and CNBCs infocomercials.. the underlying broad egg nest is slowly burning away.. Be a long term investor they say..well they better look beyond the fancy paint job, and at obligations vs price also what the obligations were tied to.. ----------------- Yep they did a good paint job TOP SIDE, but if you look at the guts you'll see they been gutting her for over a year.