To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (31182 ) 4/14/2000 7:53:00 AM From: IQBAL LATIF Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
Old resistances become new supports if you look at this SP00M chart you would find that where we sit now was the resistance of the market in Feb 7 area, if we continue to violate this support as I have expressed in my earlier post we may test this area of 1425 support, however a breach of 1425 will lead us 1380 or 1350 area, if we hold this support at 1458 (that I expect) if CPI is in line, or even if it not the sell off is now viewed positive for a slow down of the economy, we may see a strong CPI a sell off to 1442 or 1425 area and a bounce back to 1458 and a close above that. If that happens we should see 1482 taken out in a weeks time and next objective should be 1518-1522 with 1540 as the objective. Today for me is the important day a break of 1458 on closing basis will be a second in a day a poor signal, however look at Comp now ..http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/default.asp?symbols= the low has already violated the Jan 10 lows and that is now a test today to see if these are closing lows if that happens and inter day of 3rd April is out we are in a sticky territory, it completely goes along with 1458 break, so for us this 3600 or 3624 plus and minus 50 points given the volatility is the pivot of reversal today, I cannot pin it but the 'B' formation is just not their, it has to be a basing wedge that is missing in a free fall and quick move up B can be seen clearly, here it is little obscure but I think that worst night marish break would be above 60% from 2800 to 5100 Comp move that 60% sits at nearly 3600, so if 60% is violated on two closing basis we are looking confirmed bear medium term and a test of 2800 is probable, that was the pre Oct 99 resistance which was blasted big time in this run..http://www.quote.com/quotecom/livecharts/default.asp?symbols=.. this break will need a break in IIX and DOT, now let me come back to DOW and SPM theory.. of support of 1458, if this holds the only formation that resembles a "b" is DOW quote.com whichever side as Hemant has pointed out also it will break it will be a violent break, now with old economy and bkx doing fine I don't see much of problem in seeing DOW coming out of this wedge with flying colors that would mean a bottom of MSFT at 75 may be Jan 99 low, this is a good possibility as most of the DOW stocks are looking upwards not downwards, it needs a new story for GE and bkx and GM or HON to break as that is not on the scene and Nikkei even last night recovered from tech sell off I expect that DOW will break on hte upside not the downside as interest fears will subsude due to widening spreads, lower market the right secotrs has been hit, I use to in last month talk about the wrong secotrs being hit, now the selling has been even in my opinion we were in DOW bear market last month at 9700 but the pain was not felt as Comp and IIX added silver lining to everyones pockets it is going to be difficult to make money 100% on DOW but the preservation in a downturn like this is also a very big cap if one can get it.. fwiw