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Technology Stocks : Echelon Corporation (ELON) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Star who wrote (1826)	4/16/2000 1:26:00 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	Respond to of 3076

For some fascinating Quant Analysis, or as you graphically described it looking waaaaay up a company's skirts" may I humbly offer this post for consideration: The premise is: 3/18/2000 Barrons' blasted "weak" Internet stocks and issued a "19 Rav Fav/'Likely to Make It' list" based upon some research by Pegasus. Granted: ELON did NOT make the list, which is neither here nor there for the purposes of this post. I spent several hours this weekend, creating 3 SI portfolios for comparative analysis and am offering same via URL below to all who would like to think for themselves. Theorems: 1) Compare Pre Barrons close (3/17) "purchase price" with 4/14 Fri's close 2) Compare Barron's current 19 Rav Fav prices with April 4, 2000 recent sell off low as the "purchase price." 3) Compare Barron's current 19 Rav Fav prices with Aug 10, 1999 LAST NASDAQ swing low. For the purposes of ELON shareholders, please insert the follwing price points: 1) March 17, 2000 ELON's close=$98.18 2) April 4, 2000 ELON's LOW= $34.12 3) August 10, 1999 ELON's LOW= $6.31 My conclusions are three: 1) My previous Technical Analysis/Back of the Napkin, Buy Point Target of $28 shr pre-run up to $113 per share-- which has been derisively greeted prior on this thread looks like it will NOT contain this current free-fall in ELON share price. That is my best assessment at this time. 2) Auric, who has been much more abrasive re: his correct call, has given his "proper ELON valuation of $15-20 PRE-FREE FALL assessment." HIS TOO, may be too optimistic as well. Let's ask him even tho' he declined my polite inquiry at the time to give his reasons why he selected that price range as "fair value." Whether or not that will hold this free-fall remains to be seen. 3) ELON's $6.31 August 10, 1999 swing low is still 78.61% beLOW current $29.50 stock price, indicating at least the statistical potential for more downside/bubble bustin' to come in ELON this week, a sobering thought for many retail investors on here, bravely trying to hold the line, visualize good earnings in this horrid psychological clime, and are thinking "long term" in this stock. An additional 78% haircut in this stock is a sobering spectre indeed. Here's the URL of the 3 portfolios for perusal, comparisons, and ones own interps. Enjoy. Message 13438023