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To: SJS who wrote (8827)	4/14/2000 12:07:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Hi Steve,..Re:.? Inflation still tame? Is the bottom about in? Could be close to the end of it. After all, tightening in the form of 4 pre-emptive hikes based on subtle hints, the CIBR and some tendencies has to start having an effect. Spending will decrease as the comfort level based on market gains evaporates. Spending makes up approximately 68% of the GDP so that's a start. Crude has presumably topped. Since there is apparently a delay showing up in the PPI and CPI, hopefully, the decline will become evident in the next couple of months. futures.tradingcharts.com In the CPI, a goodly portion of the acceleration was due to crude. More than four-fifths of the March transportation advance was due to the continued rise in gasoline prices. In March, the index for gasoline registered its largest monthly advance since April 1999--up 11.1 percent--bringing its increase over the last 12 months to 52.6 percent. As of March, the index for gasoline was 10.2 percent higher than its previous peak level of November 1990. stats.bls.gov Finally, Alan recognized that the hikes in '88 and again in '94 were too aggressive and has stated that they would be more careful to actually or accurately gauge inflation and target small increases to hopefully guide the economy to a soft landing. Just can't find the actual speech where he talked about it.<g> Last, in all the years I've paid attention to the Fed, because of bond futures trading, I always thought Alan was apolitical and was recently shocked to find out that he is not.<G> So with the election coming, I think there is going to be mighty pressure to let the good times continue. Anyway, we might see the PPT come in later and buy futures like on April 4. We know it exists.<gg> After all banks, even member fed banks have investment portfolios. Cheers, Lee PS - A lot of this can also be attributed to the wise analysts who, for unknown reasons, dump on MSFT when it is down, and go on and on about PEs and pushing endlessly Dow stocks. Makes you wonder if they want to unload some DD or Alcoa?

To: SJS who wrote (8827)	4/14/2000 4:23:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Steve, It was a rough day. Of course I had been trading, long and short; calls and puts. I had a good trading day but a lousy investing day and still not willing to commit to margin until at least until next week. It was just a traders' market. One could sense that the declines would continue right to the end. However, we did see some buying right at the end and I used that as sign for buying some of the good blue chip techs. I think mutual funds had been joining the selling to raise cash for better opportunities and that is understandable. It has been a downward spiral assisted by funds raising cash and margin calls. I am now betting on a flat market tomorrow. Ha Ha. Monday should be a gain as the traditional pattern has been for a selloff. That was my logic in getting out of my short positions and back to long. I think this was a washout that became apparent after the rally yesterday had failed. You and Greg have been right for the last few days. Good call. Still looking for the reboud in the best stocks.