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Technology Stocks : eToys Inc. (ETYS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (1083)	4/14/2000 1:51:00 PM
From: Joe Mintz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1330

Things could hardly get worse. Where are the buyers? Well, unfortunately, the broad market is in trouble over the next year because we now have an inverted yield curve. This is a very good predictor for economic weakness. Nonetheless, ETYS is not the market. And given how strangely the net stocks trade, I do not know what the correlation will be like. There is a large short interest outstanding here. Fears of shutdown, worry over red figures. Concerns over competition. Down well over 90% from the peak. That is a big move. Seems to be no hope. One could hardly ask for a more transparent buy signal. Over the next week, I may acquire a block, and will hold it for up to 5 years depending on what develops. You will almost never get the turns exactly. Nobody always picks the bottoms perfectly. Anyone who boasts of this is a complete liar. At some time in the future, we'll see comparable volatility, to the upside. The troubles with margin trading have proven key, in my opinion. Since the NASDAQ web site recently posted a warning bulletin about this, I assess that the bulk of the difficulties are over. Many have had the shirt taken off their back by this protracted collapse. Imagine if you had sought to follow the up-trend at 80... Still, this is a pin-prick compared to the margin blowout in 29. This is really pennies (so far). There has already been too much chatter and nonsense spread about ETYS. One wonders, when the stock was trading above 80 only a few months ago, why none of these concerns really surfaced. All of the factors were essentially there; the market has decided to have an anxiety attack about them now as rising interest rates are already weakening basic market direction. To me, this has been a classic overreaction. Shorts have been saying, "This time will be different! This company is sinking..." Guess what? It won't be different. When the stock returns to normal (nobody can say exactly when), patient holders will have a 300-500% gain. Don't necessarily count on a quick take-over, though. It could happen, but there is bound to be some retrenching in internet strategy after this major wave of fear. I might add comparable positions over the next few weeks depending on the price action. I am not calling a bottom necessarily. I view this merely as a trade with a significant statistical advantage as long as you can afford to wait out the chaos. These shares will be sidelined until my long-term target for ETYS has been attained. Consider the massive mountain of short sales in this stock, lying exposed to unlimited upside risk...They tend to cover like lemmings. Still, who knows? Make your own call. JM