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To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (4114)	4/14/2000 12:34:00 PM
From: jef saunders	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14101

always look on the bright side of death.

To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (4114)	4/15/2000 7:53:00 AM
From: Tom Drolet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14101

Mark, Wolf, jef S, john d, and Ron: Follows is a verbatem copy of a post from APG on the IW thread on Raging Bull. Well worth a read to establish some perspective in the 'times we are in'. I appreciate it was written in the context of the Tech Revolution--but the ideas transcend to the new wave companies with future cash flow potential overall. That said--the sooner our DMX can get the cash a moving the better buy DMX will be at these and potentially lower prices. Tom D. "Markets Where do I start. Such a complex subject or is it ? Not really. Markets and prices are the sum of investor expectations. These expectations are influenced by external factors - economic, technological, manipulation ( I won't go there tonight ) etc. etc. Sometimes expectations are pessimistic, optimistic, neutral. Every now and then they are eccessively pessimistic or optimistic. It's human nature. We are concluding a segment of time that was characterized by an extremely over-optimistic outlook on the technological revolution that we are presently experiencing. Does this invalidate the revolution ? No, it reinforces it. You see a confluence of events have conspired to create a temporary over-estimation of the basic principle of investing - earnings. Last fall the Fed provided liquidity as insurance for perceived problems with Y2K in the face of an economy that was in full swing. As events unfolded the additional liquidity was unnecessary and as the economy rolled along the Fed resumed the withdrawal of $ from the economy that it initiated last summer. Meanwhile the momentum built into the market was building in the face of this warning signal and the problem was compounded by the excessive margin debt build-up. Also, institutionals were pouring $ into the market at the same time. Something had to give. It just did. Why do earnings matter ? We're all going to find out the hard way now. People confused a stock certificate with a lottery ticket. Myself included. It's hard not getting caught up in it - it's so fantastic. The greater fool theory replaced common sense. Earnings will serve as the under-pinning for a stock. It's measurable. It's real. Dreams aren't. So where do we stand ? The NAZ, like all markets, has an established long term trendline that is in relation with it's rate of earnings growth. Prices will fluctuate within a trend channel testing both the upper and lower limits.This is the normal state of affairs. Sometimes prices exceed or fall below the upper or lower limits of this channel. These are exceptions. We just lived through an extremely rare exception and now we are returning back to the norm. Where will we bottom ? No one knows for certain. Why ? Because just as we exceeded the channel to the upside we may on the way back exceed it to the downside. Where is the channel ? The NAZ has a long term channel that is bound at present by 3600 on the upside and 2800 on the downside.This channel is roughly on a 30% incline. This represents the average earnings growth rate of the top market weighted stocks that dominate the index. This is where prices will then gravitate to. It's not rocket science - just common sense. So are we witnessing a market crash ? Is this the end of the great economic boom ? Is everything we assumed about the technological revolution wrong ? OF COURSE NOT !!!! This is not a market crash. It's a swift painful correction to an overly optimistic and speculative period. Market crashes are characterized by a lack of liquidity in the financial system and the inability of the markets who serve as transaction venues to operate in a cohesive manner. Well , there's lots of cash sitting on the sidelines and the markets are coping just fine in executing the orders. This will pass and the well diversified investor will have weathered this storm well but not without pain. Pain is the price we all pay for these market abnormalities. What to do ? Don't panic. If you are invested in stocks that have good earnings growth or prospects for such you will be OK. If you have invested in companies with real products with real markets and has real opportunuties - that's great. If not - you are about to get wiped out. Take this opportunity to buy these good companies. Use common sense when buying. Don't jump in with both feet and don't go on margin. Buy a little at a time. If you can't diversify - get mutual funds. Take advantage of this time to buy. 2 - 3 years from now you will be way ahead. The get rich quick philosophy is as old as Rome. Stick with tech as your engine for growth. Look into small companies who are changing the way things are being done. These are going to be the big winners in the years ahead. IW will be one of them. Good luck, apg "