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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Curbstone who wrote (22738)	4/14/2000 12:47:00 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

AM Who does it benefit? It benefits the investor who is on the right side of the trend! The point I was trying to make in my previous post is that unless there is a "soft landing" the economy will most likely suffer a recession. How bad will it be? That's anyone's guess, but for now you have a hawkish FED worried about inflationary pressures and they will continue to hike until they feel satisfied the overheating economy has sufficiently cooled. The problem is raising rates doesn't usually produce the "desired result" for at least 6 months and I believe that's why Greenspan has a history of overdoing it, because by the time they see the "evidence" they need (lagging indicators) the damage is already done. For example, big concern right now is housing, the FED will probably note that the string of hikes hasn't slowed mortgage demand. True, refi's are down, but incrementally raising rates has a perverse effect stimulating home purchases, since everybody's trying to get locked in before the next rate hike... I truly believe there are inflationary pressures out there, but they've been successfully "managed" by productivity gains, but just remember, how much more productivity can you squeeze out of your local UPS driver for example, to offset his rising wages and sign on bonus? Please take a look at the local help wanted ads under "drivers" to get an idea of the type of labor pressure we have right now. bp

To: Curbstone who wrote (22738)	4/14/2000 1:20:00 PM
From: alankeister	Respond to of 54805

>>Who are the major beneficiaries of all this? In the future, GG investors may benefit. Bear with me. One of the problems Moore and Motley Fool have addressed is that is increasingly hard to buy into companies when the stock is in hypergrowth. When the entire market goes up, it is fairly easy to have short term wins on speculation. Many stocks have gone into hypergrowth before business plans have been proven. It feels like a brutal beating at the moment, but I think this bear market will be educational to a lot of people, myself included. My prediction is money will flow more into companies with established track records and a bit more sanity will ensue. A more stable predictable market is a better place for informed investors. - Alan (working hard to become an informed investor)

To: Curbstone who wrote (22738)	4/14/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: que seria	Respond to of 54805

Beneficiaries? Those who believe cash is good to have around for bargains such as those arriving, and who have shunned the high-priced gorillas and kings we long to own, waiting for the inevitable correction. Thanks to the fine posters on this thread for alerting me to many stocks I want to buy, but only on sale. O&G has been an excellent place to park money waiting for tech bargains. When a sector has such fundamental supply and demand factors working for it as O&G did in February, I like to treat positions in it as though they make up a cash account--but one with a lot of upside while I wait on what I want long term. As some on this thread have noted, there emphatically is such a concept as valuation. QCOM's and JDSU's fabulous rises last year don't disprove that for that huge majority of cases.