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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (1744)	4/14/2000 2:00:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Respond to of 1989

But they got to win the vote, and would you vote for that?

To: Z Analyzer who wrote (1744)	4/14/2000 8:16:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

You missed my point I think Z.....when this deal popped at the end of March it gave you 77 bucks (.467 vrts + 5) for a 62 dollar stock, no collar necessary :o) At today's close the deal gives you 43 bucks (.467 vrts + 5) for a 39.50 dollar stock. The $15 premium has shrunk to $3.50. As the air goes out of the vrts balloon the deal premium gets squeezed and the deal loses all rationale. If vrts bottoms out in the 60-70 range, (and that looks more distinctly possible today than a couple of days ago, right?) the deal will go towards 32-38 range and the deal premium will essentially disappear. Most everyone's gains will have largely disappeared too leaving not much tax avoidance rationale either. Seagate will remain an "undervalued" company searching for some way to unlock shareholder value, but clearly, at these projected prices, the VRTS deal as structured ain't going to unlock diddly squat worth of SEG shareholder value. It will be fascinating to watch, but for the life of me I just can't see where this pig is going to get its flying wings in this market. I mean look at it this way....once upon a time (2 weeks ago) VRTS ripped off 3 billion for its services as a tax free pipeline to SEG shareholders, and SL and company ripped off a couple billion for structuring a deal that delivered about 20 billion to SEG shareholders. But that 20 billion has since been transformed to a mere 10 billion or so. If this deal looked looked a bit tacky to institutions 2 weeks ago just what do we think it looks like now? Of course the market could come roaring back and send VRTS back on up towards its $200 target price :o) But I don't think so.....there may not be blood in the streets yet but it is kind of smearing up the hallways. If anyone knows why a rational fund manager SHOULD vote his SEG shares for this deal I would sure appreciate being educated in the matter. Best Regards.....Tom