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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46250)	4/14/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Market Outlook - Thursday April 13, 2000 optionstrategist.com Sentiment has turned negative, as the equity-only put-call ratio has capitulated to a sell signal. There are a great number of individual stock sell signals, too. After wavering for nearly two weeks, the equity-only put-call ratio turned higher Monday, finally confirming the sell signal. In addition, the "new" NYSE and NASD equity put-call ratios, that we introduced recently, have also generated sell signals. The S&P 500 futures option ratio generated a sell signal, too. One positive is that NYSE breadth has improved over the past few weeks, thereby keeping our oscillator in a positive mode. If it should fall below -200, that would negate the current oscillator buy signal and would act as a confirmation of the sell signals that are indicated by the put-call ratios. The oscillator stands at approximately +19 as of Thursday's close (4/13/00).

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46250)	4/14/2000 2:38:00 PM
From: NucTrader	Respond to of 99985

Yeah, like around mid-May, when they get their April statements.....

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46250)	4/14/2000 2:41:00 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I remember reading a study a couple of years back that measured how fast people cash out of their mutual funds following a severe market drop. The redemption ratio was surprisingly low. I don't remember exactly, but it was something like 3% per month.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46250)	4/14/2000 3:01:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I disagree. To me, this implies strength and the market is not a "bubble". I do believe many internet stocks were in bubbles (and then later the biotechs joined in) and most of the market was overbought but, I think most of the xs has been wrung out. Now, if we could only get a capitulation day. I am close to throwing my 401K back in the mix.