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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (8845)4/14/2000 10:44:00 PM
From: Kent Rattey  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24042
 
"If history has any relevance, we still have a long way to go to the average and bear market bottoms are characterised by selling frenzies (we're not done yet!) that bring the average p/e ratio well below the historical mean (to the levels noted above). "

Have you moved north of that pulp factory yet? There is no evidence we are in a bear market, but thanks for the history class. I recall the historical S&P p/e at 24, but that is irrelevant to do the historic make-up of the index versus the the current SIC's: apples to oranges. If you can give me an example of a prolonged bear market during great economic expansion in the US, I'm all ears!



To: Hank Stamper who wrote (8845)4/15/2000 2:53:00 PM
From: brightness00  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24042
 
David,
Wish I had read your posts back in Feb . . . Are you buying puts nowadays then?



To: Hank Stamper who wrote (8845)4/15/2000 9:09:00 PM
From: Nichols  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24042
 
I am extremely brhind in reading SI (turned off computer for some time), so forgive me if this has been asked. Historically, wasn't a bear market triggered by by some event- oil/recession/inflation/interest rates? If so, I don't think(hope) that we will see a prolonged bear market. Our economy is humming along! Interest rates still quite low, inflation still quite low, Oil prices stabalizing and moving to a ralative low price, growth is at a nice slow rate. Perfect conditions. What will keep us in a bear market? I realize, at this point, I have rose colored glasses on, and maybe quite naiive, but I see us bouncing back from this. Again, don't know if this issue has been discussed to death, and if it has, apologies. TIA