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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46333)	4/14/2000 8:14:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Market internals for the day that was... intelligentspeculator.com Stating the obvious here, but the COMPX / NDX gave plenty of warnings of this little event, rallying back to to the uppermost trading range on the daily and then failing. The only thing surprising to me is how fast it moved... In conjunction with price we've seen a steadily eroding volume picture. The blue line, 4th panel down, is a cumulative volume indicator, simply composed of daily advancing less declining volume from the Nasdaq. Ever since it started to weaken after the huge run up earlier this year, its been time to be wary if invested in tech stocks. Now our attention will turn to "is this a bottom" and as Justin Mamis points out, if you are still asking, it isn't! (Thanks She Said for the quote). Some will see the VIX in the 40's as encouragement; some will note the very high "New Lows" value 557 today as signs of a bottom; I just would like to point out that VIX can easily run up to 50-60 plus; in 98 new lows hit 1400 plus. I haven't had time to peruse the many posts here on MDD but imagine that many of us are expecting a long and drawn out recovery from this. 2.3B shares declining volume today is my main hint here. Course who knows, maybe upon reflection over the weekend the populace and their investment management will decide this is just one more dip to buy... Nah! Probably not. Not yet anyways. Hope all are safe and sound. Michael

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46333)	4/14/2000 8:19:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz: I think another factor behind the bubble was the emergence of the US as the lone superpower and the feeling that it could do anything it wanted anywhere in the world without worrying about the consequences. Indeed the incredibly arrogant behavior of the US financial amrkets these past few years closely resembles US behavior in the world generally. But there are limits to everything -- even the US ability to perpetually get its way on the global stage and forcing foreigners to keep financing outsize trade deficits. From what I gather many foreigners see the US as an out of control arrogant bully that needs to be contained. Perhaps the market action this weak is the beginning of a process that will bring a badly needed sense of reality to the nation -- both financially and in its relations with other countries.