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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (46344)	4/14/2000 9:36:00 PM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<<<<<<OT>>>>>>>>> Your post is interesting. Let me just start by saying that I am a trader, and I am "cash on the sideline" except that I do my share of intraday trading (long and short), but have no interest in holding trading positions. I also manage some accounts for others, they are mostly in cash, with some funds in utilities and other relatively safe investments. <<I don't know if it will be Monday morning but inevitably there will be massive bargain-buying, short-covering and tons of sideline cash at least nibbling>> Where in hell is all of the tons of sideline cash going to come from, if mutual funds are already fully invested (I can't wait to see how many are far out on margin and liquidating because of this) and managed by individuals with limited risk management experience and who are as apt as any to sell at the worst possible time in a panic. <<the media buzz will start turning positive as it always does>> these aholes, like the analyst aholes, have created the ridiculous froth and speculation with all their disingenuous remarks about how the sky is the limit for the stock market and the overvalued equities that they pimp for. You are absolutely right, they probably will try to pimp (oops, I meant pump) things up next week, to get people back into stocks that have gotten 50-70% haircuts from the levels that they previously were pumping the stocks from. <<Great damage has been done but everything that comes down goes back up sooner or later>> Not that I want to in any way compare what is happening now to 1929, but those investors waited something like 40 years to get back to even. So it could be later rather than sooner. <<Right now you can get the best stocks at a big discount.>> A discount relative to what, the top ? Maybe there is still a premium to fair value that has yet to be squeezed out. <<Also, unless the big boys start going bullish this kind of slide risks causing a recession, which is the last thing anyone in the world wants to cause, including Greenspan, Abby Cohen and every other most influential market leader>> Now you're talking brother, because what I have feared all along is that this artificial wealth created by this speculative frenzy can be dried up pretty quickly and slow things down, along with a fed policy that is too slow along with a reversal in business cycles (yes, it is possible that the economy can stop growing year after year after year after year) and inverted rate curves and before you know it, yeah, we go into a recession and guess what, maybe none of those "influential market leaders" can do squat about it. Excuse me if I don't share your optimism for the long term, although a bounce is inevitable. The bigger the bounce, the better the short. Be careful out there. I am wary of anyone who thinks this is a passing gale. I'll trade the rallies long and short, but when it comes to real long term investing, the best opportunities lie in the future, as I see economic trouble ahead. And believe me, in my heart I hope I'm wrong. But for now, my wallet stays in my pocket after each trading day. American Spirit, I respect your right to express your opinion, and what I say here is not meant as a personal attack, it is an expression of my disdain for an environment where it is questionable whether people see the severity of the speculation that has gotten us here and the risk that it puts our country in and the pain it can cause to innocent investors who rely on "influential market leaders" to guide them into financial ruin. David

To: American Spirit who wrote (46344)	4/14/2000 9:52:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<Remember the last few crashes? The next day brought powerful buying and upside momentum.> there is another axiom,bad close thursday, dark day friday,black day monday or tuesday o.k. i just made it up:) but it rings true to me.max

To: American Spirit who wrote (46344)	4/14/2000 10:13:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Respond to of 99985

I like your post a lot but. . . . The market, the market . . . here we go again with the market. Vagueness like lumping everything into the proverbial "market" basket is bellow the level of people posting on this board IMO.

To: American Spirit who wrote (46344)	4/15/2000 3:00:00 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Remember, all the trillions didn't disappear, it went to cash and other safe havens. Uh, actually, in many cases, billions has in fact gone up in smoke. Not all of it was transfered into someone elses pocket. Being a perenial short seller, I'd love to think it all ended up in mine, but thats not the case. A massive revaluation of stocks means that many folks lost value they may never see again. The axiom you don't lose until you sell is dead wrong. Being a realist, I look for bounces and buy them too, I like to make my money on the way up and down. Today was unreal. I bought many bounces that appeared to look feasible and would hold; the story is out, none of them did. I'm pretty good at picking intraday bottoms but each and every one today saw unrelentless selling. Could it turn around in a day? I doubt it. 2.3B shares down volume against 0.1B up volume (on the Nasdaq) says I doubt it. what has changed? A little inflation. No big deal. Personally I think sentiment and emotion has changed, and its not just today that suggests it to me either. Its time for the "What Were We Thinking" recrimination series of TV shows as folks recognize that paying 1500x earnings for 5 year "potential" growth, some of these stories starting to look dubious, is nutz. The resulting fall out is sure to make Bre*X look like a dime store robbery. Asset inflation is the issue; irrational pricing is the issue. That real inflation has troughed some time ago and is starting to pick up a real head of steam is just the straw that broke the camel's back IMO. So in conclusion, if you are a nimble trader, sure, there may be some bottoming and rallying, perhaps even soon, but I suspect that rallies will be sold for some time until the most resolute bull is crushed. Could be weeks, could be months.