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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46363)	4/14/2000 10:12:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, as i posted a couple of days ago on the gpm thread, from my GST newsletter, the xau up/down volume had reached an oversold level seen in only about 1.5% of the trading days of the last 20 years, pretty much sold out, everybody threw in the towel. The insiders (central banks) announced they were stopping their selling last fall, and now we now have an oversold level commensurate with the 1998 level on up/down volume, and close but not below the price low. Prechter has got many things wrong, and i don't believe he understands the inverse relationship between the dow and gold. While there is a boatload of bearish sentiment around, i will have to go back to the charts. 207.61.23.98 the oex tested the trendline from the october 98/99 lows today, dipped below and closed on it, but you don't want a test of a trendline on a big black gapping candle, you want some zig/zaggy soft touch like the october 99 test. i believe we will break that trendline in the near future. b

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46363)	4/14/2000 11:13:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

The fact that the XAU strongly outperformed POG today is quite bullish. The best relative XAU performance in many months. Let me say that I agree that a major bottom is not here yet, perhaps not even close. But a decent bounce seems highly probable by Tuesday at the latest. A bounce that probably will not last more than a day or two. One thing to consider. Virtually everybody on this thread seems to feel the market will rebound strongly and quickly when the bottom is hit (wherever that may be). But I think we have to consider the possibility that the market may go down and stay down for awhile. The bottoming process may take some considerable time. People counting on a huge immediate rebound from the lows may be in for great disappointment. New era investors know that markets can drop hard and fast. But they also "know" that such drops "always" are followed by powerful rebounds. But if the market goes down and does not make a major recovery for many months, that will REALLY shatter confidence.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46363)	4/14/2000 11:19:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99985

Heinz: One thing to consider about POG. If it drops to $180 as Prechter forecasts, most of the global mining industry will shut down. That is far below production costs for most miners. When chart projections violate simple common sense, I go with common sense.