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To: Sweet Ol who wrote (438)	4/14/2000 11:21:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 1805

Well done, well said, and you obviously grok this. Steve

To: Sweet Ol who wrote (438)	4/15/2000 2:28:00 AM
From: John F.	Respond to of 1805

Nice work John. Looking forward to your results. Allow me to contribute 1 opinion for what it is worth. One thing to keep in mind is that .. although the Nasdaq has had quite a run up since Sept. '98, I would suggest that the Nasdaq was, at that time, depressed due to 2 big events: 1st we had the Asian Flu in Aug. '97 and then we had the Russian bond problems in Aug. '98. I agree that this Nasdaq got way ahead of itself, and, I think that since we overshot on the upside, we probably need to overshoot on the downside a little before heading back up. Anyway, keep that in mind if you would while you do your analysis. Thanks. Have a nice weekend. And, good luck with your investments.

To: Sweet Ol who wrote (438)	4/15/2000 8:05:00 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

Just for fun, I will throw this one out for you to comment on: We have to have someone in charge of keeping stability in our economy. We do that by giving one body, headed by Greenspan, the ability to choke off the money supply by raising interest rates or to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates. Suppose you are in AG's shoes. The US economy is enormous. You can not possibly know in which direction it is going. Therefore AG doesn't know if we need to raise or lower interest rates. So AG calls in 50 experts - the finest academic and business economist in the nation. 25 say raise rates and 25 say lower rates. AG doesn't know what to do. But he is in charge of the economy and has to do something (even doing nothing is doing something). So the fed reasons that there is one thing they can do to at least have some macro understanding of where we are. Simply start jacking up interest rates and never stop. Eventually you will hit a point where nobody can do business. The market will crack, unemployment will go up, business will fail (real estate and industries on thin margins first). Once that happens, you can start to lower interest rates until it goes away. Then you start the cycle all over again. It is a horribly crude system but at least you know in which direction the economy is headed. The toughest part is when you are at the last interest hike before the collapse. About where we are now. In the past the feds have usually overshot the mark and caused a mini recession. Probably partly because they are always looking at lagging indicators (example: Friday's Consumer Index was based on oil a month ago which was at $32 a barrel - it is now $23. It also doesn't reflect Friday's crash which has got to have an effect on both consumers and businesses). The best part is that once you are over the top and going down the other side (lowering interest rates) the market really takes off. **************************** One final thing. The market in the past is not the market today. When we did this exercise in the past, like the 70's, there was very little going on. The big talk would be how many MacDonald hamburger sites would open. The change we are going through today is tumultuous. The rewiring of our infrastructure, like SONET, to a optical network is reported to be a multi-trillion dollar effort by itself. Because of all this, I think the market will remain strong. It is demand driven. If this was the 70's or even early 80s I would say take your money out and go to real estate. Almost all the analyst that I hear agree that the economy is strong and has a lot to drive it. I bet the guys in the 70's or even early 80's did not say this because there simply wasn't anything there to cause the kind of tremendous growth we are experiencing. I think the CPI will be much tamer next month. The feds should stop raising rates and see what happens. They can always start again at any time. However, most people seem to feel that the chances are AG, a Clinton appointed man, will only stop as we get near the election (no October rate hike) so the economy looks good for the fall election. Meantime we will probably continue to see most money stay away from the bedrock industries that will get hammered worst by the rate hikes. The March housing starts (April 18) are not very meaningful but the later indicators that reflect April will be very interesting.