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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (1028)	4/15/2000 9:51:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

My understanding is that there were "only" $300 Billions in margins, is that enough to cut 42 trillions from the market cap? I am not sure. The Wilshire 5000 is supposed to reflect the "total value" of the market and on the average should be within plus/minus 20% of GDP, we are still a long way. Right now we have a lot of parallels to the 1987 crash (and black Monday is still ahead of us?). I do not expect a 25% drop on Monday (but who knows), and do expect a turn on Tuesday, but market timing is now compressed and instead of a retest of next Tuesday's low within 6 weeks after that, we may have a violent 3 to 5 days rally and not only a retest, but possibly a new low late in May. So, Bosco, in your place, I would use the coming bounce to "demargin" a little. Of course, my turnips have been wrong before and will again, but I think that conservation fo capital is here more important than profits. Zeev