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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (34841)	4/17/2000 12:02:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

More "one-point trending" by the media, eh? A monthly rate of 0.7% means at least 8.4%, and that's not compounded! Gosh, time to pay attention to ol' Chicken Little after all. <grin> Oh, and I'm sure it's not just the media doing this, they're just the easiest target to spell. As a statistician, I find this sort of thinking to be some of the most dangerous, and the most rampant. Statistical thinking is one of those supremely scarce elements (and I've got a whole rant on this one, but I'll leave the soap box pushed firmly under the desk. For now.). What's worse is, we don't have the raw data to draw our own conclusions from, just a composite from the government, who may "adjust" the number to suit their needs. (No conspiracy theorist here, just a realist who's seen it done in the past and who doesn't believe they've given up such for Lent.) Even as a measure of the fundamental health of the economy, this 0.7% value, with its error bar, is an autopsy report. I can't drive my car while reading an autopsy. So I look for forward-thinking indicators, and so far, I'm satisfied that nothing significant has changed there. Like you, Gottfried, I plan on having a nice weekend.... Mitch