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To: Hank Stamper who wrote (8884)	4/15/2000 2:24:00 AM
From: Whistler30	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 24042

David; While what you say has merit I believe it ignores one of the most salient factors in the history of the stock market - that P/E ratios have a strong demographic connection. Any time a dominant cohort reaches their middle years they exert a powerful effect on all aspects of the economy, including financial markets. This was the case in the roaring nineties, the twenties, to a lesser extent the sixties, and most recently the late seventies and early eighties in Japan. In each case increased consumer demand for equities resulted in a dramatic increase in price earnings ratios and in each case it could be equally well argued that these P/E ratios were driven purely by the simple law of supply and demand. In almost every case the "bubble" really burst only when the majority of the cohort reached age 60 and sought less volatile instruments to safeguard their wealth - namely bonds. The classic and best studied example of this was in Japan in the late eighties. We are part of the greatest cohort (in relative numbers) in modern history entering into their highest earning and investing years. This group will not be content with a humble retirement and they have already shown, to their detriment these past few months, that they are not afraid of risk. IMHO that is also essential to understanding this market over the longer term. Regards, Whistler

To: Hank Stamper who wrote (8884)	4/15/2000 8:11:00 AM
From: Kent Rattey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

<I did not use the term "prolonged" so I am not really sure how to answer.> "prolonged", was interpreted from your words: "Historically, bear markets run from 6 to 24 months. Some have gone longer and go to 36 or more months. Do not think this present situation will resolve itself this spring, summer, or fall. Nope." Are you saying the expansion is ending, and based on what? "try the grand expansion during the mid to late 1960s that ended in the bear that began in 1970." There has never been a bear market in America during a period of rapid expansion. AG is trying to put the brakes on a very rapid expansive economy. This is a simple steep correction.