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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (1755)	4/15/2000 10:14:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Whether CSCo and INTC are oversold is a technical issue. But if its is going to take irrestable values to put a floor under this market, we haven't seen anything yet. Look at a chart of these companies and how far they are up on even a one year chart. In addition to margin calls, the real issue is whether the insane flows into aggressive growth funds gets slammed into reverse for the real disaster scenario. The weekly loss for the most aggressive funds must well exceed 25%. Perhaps people decide they are too cheap to sell while if they went down 5% each week, they would have time to get discouraged.

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (1755)	4/15/2000 12:47:00 PM
From: Tom Simpson	Respond to of 1989

<<And so after $3 trillion of market cap disappear, we will return to a rational market. I hope.>> Still got a long long ways to go for that I think. I can start to make a case for CSCO under 30, the more under the better the case. The trouble is, even after this weeks bloodbath, the markets are still twice as high as historical valuation norms would suggest. Gosh, just looking at how far some of these better tech companies have yet to drop to hit their 200 day moving averages is downright depressing. Best.....Tom

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (1755)	4/15/2000 3:13:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1989

Sarmad, I think your market analysis if fine except for one thing. Inflation. There is little doubt in my mind and I'm sure in the mind of Alan Greenspan that inflation is beginning to smolder once again. This makes the "buy any dip" strategy, that has been so rewarding over the years, dangerous here. It remains to be seen how serious this inflation scare will be but if it becomes serious enough to require aggressive tightening then the proper course will be to sell the rallies not buy the dips. I think there is a good chance that something fundamental has changed here. It is long overdue in my book as I believe that the U.S. economy MUST slow - no ifs, ands or buts. All this "New Economy" rationalization is about as tenable as the valuations we saw on interut stocks in the recent past. I am going to carefully buy this dip but won't be buying the big blue chip techs until they have shed another 25% or thereabouts. I am going to be buying good growth companies at reasonable prices that I believe will be rediscovered by the market. -Rob