Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (105820)	4/15/2000 2:41:00 AM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570289

Joe, I think we are going to see substantial price cuts on Athlon very soon. Pravin.

To: Joe NYC who wrote (105820)	4/15/2000 5:17:00 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1570289

Re: "I am having hard time accepting the "demand constrained" scenario. I base it on 2 facts: * Intel can't satisfy demand for chips across all segments (maybe excluding Xeon)" That's the way it looks. "* AMD sold out all the K6 chips they could make" That's what they said yes. "* Boxmakers can't sell enough boxes because they are lacking parts, especially CPUs." They are lacking Intel parts. There are plenty of Athlons in AMD's warehouse. "Under these assumptions, where everything is sold out, why would only Athlon be sitting in the warehouse?" I'm sure you already know my answer to this one. The market has spoken. We'll have to wait until next week to hear just how loudly. Nevertheless, AMD is profitable and nicely so. Too bad all this must coincide with a market crash or NiceGuy might be remotely close with his predictions. Flash must be contributing significantly to the bottom line. Did you notice that AMD sold out all their Flash production? With unsatisfied Flash demand, Athlons stacking up in the warehouse and an unused fab soon to be pumping out more Athlons to be joining their comrades in the warehouse, it sure seems like someone isn't planning very well, or someone has an agenda that doesn't place profitability at the top of the list. I haven't been able to follow all the posts because of time differences over here. Is anyone buying at these levels. They should be (if anyone has any money left). EP

To: Joe NYC who wrote (105820)	4/15/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1570289

Re: Under these assumptions, where everything is sold out, why would only Athlon be sitting in the warehouse?... IMHO (your conclusions may vary) The market for computers is segmented into Business and Retail/SOHO. Most of the market is business (75%?). There are no Athlon offerings in the business market - yet. Had Intel been open about its supply problems, some of the tier 1 OEMs would have offered Athlons and those would now be sold out too. It takes time to qualify a "corporate" platform, and with Intel swearing to its customers that they were about to be buried in a flood of coppermines, everybody waited. It's hard to condemn Intel for screwing its customers and clinging to that market through a bit of prevarication (but then I voted for Clinton and tend to be more forgiving than most). Being cornered can bring out the rat in the best of us, but Intel has lost a lot of credibility these past few months. They've held back AMD some and bought some time, whether or not it was worth the price will not be known for some time. I find it hard to believe that with all of its FAB space and engineering talent Intel won't be able to solve these problems soon. But it does seem to have been going on for quite a while now, and as soon as one problem is solved another comes up. IMHO, Intel's corporate culture underwent a subtle change about 2 years ago. They have managed to ingrain some pernicious incentives that are causing them to select a defective solution that costs a little less over a functional solution that costs a little more. The "save some pennies with a lower pin count" thing making them stick with rambus is one example. Remember Paul gloating over how Intel's plastic flip chip technology would save them $5 per chip over AMD's robust and heat tolerant ceramic package? It sure has paid off so far, eh? Intel will certainly get it together eventually, but their customers aren't going to trust them for awhile. AMD is going to be guaranteed a position as a supplier for the near term, at least. AMD has gone from a speculation to a blue chip. Regards, Dan

To: Joe NYC who wrote (105820)	4/15/2000 6:01:00 PM
From: Bert Herman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570289

Joe, Re: "Under these assumptions, where everything is sold out, why would only Athlon be sitting in the warehouse?" I don't believe that warehouse theory of Elmer. Being the proud owner of a small "screwdriver" shop, I'm usually the latest in the line to receive parts in times of a shortage, certainly because I live oversea. Now about Intel: For me it was really impossible to receive any P3 from dec 15 to the end of feb.So sure my business suffered from this, but not from a lack of demand, but from a lack of supply. In march and now on, I can have P3 but only up to 800 MHZ. I don't mind because I'm selling Athlons to my customers now. About AMD: I could get Athlons in dec and jan, but I couldn't get MB. From half feb on, this problem was solved and I jumped, like so many other small guys, on the Athlon bandwagon. Intel forced us to. But even now the supply of Athlons is not overwhelming. I mean I can always get them, but not always in the freq. I want. Certainly not in overstock at the moment. So, al be it on a very small scale, just like GTW, I missed my Q1 a little, not from the demand side, but from the supply side. What this implies for INTC, I'm not sure, but that "flood of processors" certainly didn't came my way, and now it seems it doesn't went to the big boys either, so maybe it went where all floods go, to the bottom of the see. Bert