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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the dodger who wrote (22789)	4/15/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: the dodger	Respond to of 54805

FWIW -- my math was a bit skewed, it looks like we actually give back something more like 63.5% of the gains.... 1.53(new top) X .78 (after next correction) = 1.1934 (new bottom) .53 - .1984 = .3366 so... .3366/.53 = 63.5% of the average advance is lost in the average correction that follows "the dodger"

To: the dodger who wrote (22789)	4/15/2000 12:11:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

dodger, Terrific post! Loved every word of it! From the safest GE -- to the speculative ICGE -- every multiple of every stock is now suspect. Gawd, I wish that were the case. It didn't happen after the correction ending in October 1998 and I don't expect it to happen now. There's so much liquidity and disposable wealth looking for vehicles to inveest in that I think the lure of owning a great stock and seeing it go up before lunch time as much as that government-guaranteed bond will go up in a year will continue to rationally and irrationally fuel the market over the long term. --Mike Buckley

To: the dodger who wrote (22789)	4/15/2000 3:32:00 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: correction/recovery the dodger wrote: Mike & Bruce, let me play devil's advocate here for a second. If you look at that correction/recovery chart from "the glass is half full" perspective, then you can find a great deal of comfort in those numbers, but if you look from "the glass is half empty" perspective...some questions arise. What I'm getting at is this... How true! The good news is that we are not investing in the general technology sector represented in the data presented in that table, but in the gorillas of various technology adoption life cycles. The more obvious course of action would be to go back to 1983 and calculate the gorillas during each of the correction/recovery periods that they were trading. If the work was divided up between a group of people, we could get an accurate read as to how Oracle, Microsoft, Intel and the others behaved share price wise during those periods. I'm not sure the data would draw any striking conclusions for us without knowing the exact valuations of each said company going into the correction and during the recovery periods to see if they did better, worse or equal to the more general 'technology sector' did during those same periods. Although, as much as we hear the oft quoted phrase of 'gorillas are the first to bounce back', it might be worth the research. I think that bell weather stocks in any sector are the first to attract capital following a severe correction or during times of unrest simply due to the conceived thought that these bell weathers offer 'safety' so to speak. They are also usually the last things to correct during a correction such as 1998 or the recent one. Many look to the final 'let go' of bell weathers as the final sign that indeed a bottom has been reached. Were the retracements of Qualcomm, Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Oracle, EMC, Dell, etc... enough to 'satisfy' those looking for such signs - or do we need a Monday/Tuesday type event that sees them all briefly drop in tandem like bricks which they did in 1998? They were the last to really capitulate at that time and had held their own pretty much to the end when the bottom fell out that one day. This time around, it appears to have been more orderly over a more extended period of time where we haven't seen a one day drop that cuts what is left almost in half. I'm not saying Monday/Tuesday won't offer that, but if you look at various recent highs to Friday's close, you see this: Oracle = $62 down from $90 Cisco = $57 down from $82 Microsoft = $74 down from $119 Intel = $110 down from $145 Qualcomm = $105 down from $200 Siebel = $86 down from $175 SAP = $45 down from $85 EMC = $110 down from $145 JDSU = $79 down from $153 Dell = $47 down from $59 GE = $145 down from $164 i2 = $78 down from $223 Nortel = $91 down from $144 ICGE = $38 down from $212 Ariba = $62 down from $183 Brocade = $95 down from $185 Sun Micro = $76 down from $106 Broadcom = $122 down from $253 All the above stocks were randomly picked by me just to show various players in a number of areas. Each and every one of them qualify for having received scalp showing hair cuts - with our without any future weakness. Will they all recover better than the general 'technology' market will? Only time will tell. The idea of researching this data in previous correction/recover periods as well as this current one might be interesting to have around. BB