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To: Sam Citron who wrote (101031)4/15/2000 2:15:00 PM
From: GST  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Sam: Nobody said it better than you <Tech stock holders have become complacent about risk. Experiencing periodic 30% haircuts, they regard this volatility as the price of admission. They figure, "Tech is the future, so why worry about it. In the last 18 years, they have always come back. Why should this time be any different?"> So far, they have been right. Is it different this time?



To: Sam Citron who wrote (101031)4/15/2000 8:27:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
>>Tech stock holders have become complacent about risk

Sam, speaking personally that is not true, any more than I would label people who don't own tech stocks as frightened.

Complacent is a loaded word, one with very specific meaning (self satisfied) that is very critical in an investing context. Easy to say in retrospect, like the US was complacent 1941.

From my perspective, the longs in my circle are very serious players who just don't hear a name and run with it. There is measured analysis, research, consultation, reflection, calculated risk-taking and review involved. We are all prepared to drop a position quickly if fundamental issues warrant that. Of course we all take a flier now and then, but those are side-bets that could explode with little consequence.

I don't criticize anyone from shying away from a stock. We all have our different interests, capacities, responsibilities, personalities, priorities and time horizons. To categorize an entire class as complacent is is too sweeping.

It's fair to say that tech stock holders have become accustomed to volatility, and take for granted the fact that the technology revolution is young and robust. Hence as a group we don't become too alarmed until prices exit the trading expectations band. That's true of living, too. Each time an anomaly occurs in life we don't brace or act on the worst-case right away.

I know the complacency issue is thrown around by clear-headed financial strategists, too. I think it's a shame, because is way to broad a label.

Did you read the eBay piece in Barron's? I'd like to know what you think. I think it's lame, and even the author says he's not considering all the issues like international in his critical piece. Why publish it?