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To: Hands Off who wrote (443)	4/15/2000 1:10:00 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 1805

Marshall, I would think that its a correction UNTIL it's determined that AG can't soft land and takes us into a recession. Then, this would have been the inflection point on the start of a bear market. If it's a bear market, we're going much lower. I am hoping we slow growth enough to soft land, and my bet is on AG to do that. Steve

To: Hands Off who wrote (443)	4/15/2000 1:52:00 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Respond to of 1805

I tend to agree with you. The Naz has had an average annual increase of about 29% in the last decade. Then along came 1999 and the roughly 85% increase. If we had grown by 29% since the end of 1998 the Naz would be at abut 3080. We are not far from that level now. A correction to blow off the unreasonable valuations of the last couple of years seems like a more likely scenario than a long term trend reversal for many of the reasons you just pointed out. Technically speaking, a bear market is a 20% decline. We are well past that, so you have to call it a bear market. But the question is, Where is the bottom? It has been my observation that human events are always like a pendulum, first it swings too far one way, and then it swings too far the other way. With that thought in mind, I think the market will overshoot the mark before it starts back up. I also think we will see more margin calls on Monday, and a lot of people sitting around this weekend deciding what to do next. I suspect there is more money sitting and watching than there is money burning holes in peoples pockets. It may bottom out next week, or it may take 2 or 3 months. But my plan is hold tight until I see evidence that things have sorted themselves out. I don't worry about finding the bottom, just like I didn't worry about bailing out at the exact top. But I have preserved most of my capital and will be ready to invest when it starts going back up. There will be plenty of money to be made, I don't have to have it all. I rode out the market in 87 and my greatest concern was that I didn't have any cash to buy at those depressed prices. I made up my mind then to try to not let that happen again. When you are uneasy about a frothy market, it is a good idea to lighten up and have some cash to buy bargains. I wish everyone the best. And remember your family and friends. There is more to life than the stock market! JRH