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Strategies & Market Trends : Cents and Sensibility - Kimberly and Friends' Consortium -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97252)	4/15/2000 1:28:00 PM
From: ciVic	Respond to of 108040

I just want to apologize for some of the comments I made to you. they were uncalled for. ciV

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97252)	4/15/2000 1:30:00 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 108040

Some research on were we are at and were we may go! These come from various places around the net, do the digging - technology will rein, look at how it has helped us all do the D&D during this market downfall. The pheonix will rise from the ashes - it is just a question of when! Friday was a capitulation, but a further drop on Monday is very likely and here's why: The sell-off in the NASDAQ has caused the index to start eating into last year's gains. There are still plenty of people who have enormous profits from the multi-year bull market. Some of those people are going to want to preserve some of those profits. Here's the problem: Paper profits aren't profits. The only way to realize profits is to sell assets and that's why there should be more selling on Monday. I really can't rule out a sub 3000 print for the NASDAQ. A major decline in the stock market might be enough to convince the Fed to go lighter on the rate hikes nearer to the election. But it must continue the appearance that it is fighting inflation or risk criticism from foreign countries and the wrath of foreign investors. And as much complaining as has been heard, the stock market really hasn't caused people to feel poorer - at least not yet. Even with the most recent decline in stock prices, the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index are down only moderately this year. These indices represent the Old Economy companies that'll be hurt by higher borrowing costs and are feeling the sting of higher inflation, especially in oil prices. The Nasdaq is down more than 34 percent from its high this year. This is a massive drop that occurred mostly in the last month. But that decline still represents only a fraction of the gain that over-the-counter stocks have achieved in the past few years. The entire market is likely to remain dangerous for the next few weeks and will probably settle down only toward the end of the second quarter. That's when money managers need to push prices higher so customers don't realize how bad the quarter really was. Such nonsense aside, inflation and interest rates are likely to remain the market's focus until the end of the year. This stock market bubble has been fun - until now. There's a time when bravery ends and foolishness begins. This stock market right now is for fools. 33% of NAS weighting: INTC P/E of 52 - MSFT P/E of 47 - QCOM P/E of 251 - ORCL P/E of 99 - CSCO P/E of 159 The houses have long since lost all credibility! Price targets ZOOX $95, ASWX $200, PHCM $169, YHOO $273, SCMR $200, MU $200/$240, VRSN $300, UTSI $170, EGAN $77.50 and the list goes on and on.... "If the bubble falls prey to wholesale liquidation, I would not even want to think about targets. Fair value for the DOW is so far away from were we are now, that a trip to fair value would be more or less a catastrophe!" Last years low on the NAS 2329, August low 2450, October low 2750. DOW - 9500 (+/-) 200 is were it should be now! 2800 will probaly be the bounce test, daytrade only and going long is a suckers game just yet IMO. All the charts have broken down so seriously that we are still all locked into the greed mode that got us here in the first place! There is no way we can just see a 180 from what has occured in the past month! We could slowly bleed to a bottom, and only when P/Es are in line can we truly feel safe going long! The smart trader has learned from this bloodbath and is willing to catch the middle of the move and not risk capital to the winds of Wall Street on a bet that the bottom has been put in! No one is an expert, but intuition and gut are powerful tools - use them! Just my 2 cents! westpacific :>

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97252)	4/15/2000 2:14:00 PM
From: Smart_Money	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108040

On the news last night a Daytrader dressed in suit and sun glasses was on the street corner with sign saying "Daytrader can't make margin call, please donate" You know its bad when that happens. It going to roll down hill to the online brokers who will suffer with bad loans and loss of interest payments. In Texas when real estate busted the banks who lost on loans went belly up.