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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (46492)	4/15/2000 3:45:00 PM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 99985

A S-- Looks like this guy agrees with you. Good article,, btw-- if you want to subscribe it is free,, and it is pretty good-- www.TechnologyInvestor.com

To: American Spirit who wrote (46492)	4/15/2000 9:43:00 PM
From: Stephen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

American Spirit, fwiw ... I'll give you my take on things. There maybe a rally Monday .... but given the cycles, there won't be any V bottom, so anyone wanting to go long (for anything other than a trade) should probably look for a double bottom before they get brave. Really ... I don't see any reason for the 'investor' to try and catch the bottom at this point.... and the big players may well feel the same way. Also ... I wonder whether the market isn't undergoing a significant longterm change. I'm firmly in the group of traders who believe that the market is driven purely by supply/demand & manipulation. Liquidity strength was supposed to last until the early 2K years because of demographics governing the likely fund inflows vs outflows.... and for instance, in the past, whenever the market dropped, and a company's shares became 'too cheap', a share buyback would be announced ... and, whether the commitment was met or not, some shares would be bought back & the pool reduced. This helped to refresh the supply/demand equation and helped the upward cycle. This has changed tremendously. Splits ... multitudes of IPO's, lockup expirations flooding the market ... lots of secondaries ... ! Despite the renewed level of trading, and the habit of marking up prices in the a.m. when possible to get things going in the right direction ... the former factors, all on top of a significant destruction of 'trading capital' these last few days makes me very nervous for the future. I've had fun mainly trading the IPO's these last few months ... but those who didn't realise what was happening on the demand/supply side now have horrible losing positions. They actually believed the new P fable I guess ... when it was really just a demand/supply reason that internut prices got so high (IMHO). I just wonder if the overall market isn't undergoing a similar radical change .... My ramblings ... fwiw .. Stephen