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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (93527)	4/15/2000 9:14:00 PM
From: Doug Robinson	Respond to of 120523

IBD Late on the uptake? That's not way I see it. Let's look at some statements from the General Markets Section which applies to what one should be doing in the market and is the section that should be used for market trends and industry trends according to Bill O'Neil (24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success). March 13 -"But the reversal off the day's high raises the question of whether the tech market might be starting to churn" March 14-"Still some leading stocks have corrected 15% to 25% in just a few days. It's a good idea to lighten up on leverage and keep close tabs on your stocks. Don't ignore breakdowns on heavy volume . . ." March 15- " . . the third day of distribution in the past week. The first day on March 7 when the Nasdaq reversed from a new high as trading increased . . . Indeed, the troubles facing the Nasdaq index are magnified among its leaders." Jenna, day after day IBD was issuing information for those that follow Bill O'Neils recommendations to start selling stocks. O'Neil is big on getting out when you start to see distribution and definitely when the market leaders start to break down. They were right on the money IMHO, and they were providing valuable input for those that were reading the paper. You take the time to point out excellent articles from the Investor's Corner that are primarily used to educate investors. IBD and Bill O'Neil both emphasize that market direction for the near term is found in the General Market and Sectors Section. I think it's a mistake to believe that the educational articles are the ones that one should be using to determine the short term direction of the market. One would do much better if they look at the area recommended by IBD for market trend analysis.

To: Jenna who wrote (93527)	4/15/2000 10:53:00 PM
From: kendall harmon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

SOUTH CAROLINA's local angle story on the market dive <<A jittery stock market earlier in the week didn't spook investors at Rosalie S. Bradham's brokerage office in Mount Pleasant. Then came Friday. "This is the first time anyone called," said Bradham, of Raymond James Financial. "They are just concerned, 'What do I do now?' I just say, hold on." Hold on. That's the word among Charleston-area financial advisers, investors and observers after an up-and-down Monday through Thursday and a downright gloomy Friday. "Fear has set in," Bradham said. "It's absolutely horrible." But going forward? "I'm not worried. I think the market is sound. Earnings are coming in great." Investors such as Christine Mattingly likewise are not shaken by the market's sell-off. "We are supposed to be looking long-term," said Mattingly, senior partner in the 13-member Charleston Investment Alliance. The group has half its holdings in blue chips such as Wal-Mart and Merck and half in Nasdaq companies, including Intel and EMC data storage company. "I listen to CNBC every evening," Mattingly said. "They have been talking that (the market's) been overvalued for a long time. But I know it's not going any place. Technology is still going forward. We're not going to dump it." Mike Halpern, branch manager of Legg Mason Wood Walker in Charleston, likewise saw investors taking the news in stride. "We were extremely busy today. We saw a lot of nervousness from clients looking at the market. But we didn't see panic. Most people are hanging on," he said. Halpern said this is still a good time to be in the market, citing the overall good economy. He said certain sectors such as tech stocks were correcting after huge gains last year and earlier this year. The Nasdaq index rose a whopping 86 percent in 1999. It's now down more than 30 percent from its record high above 5,000 on March 10. "What we're seeing is the market wrenching out excessively evaluated stocks," he said. "It's normal." Conrad Zimmerman, manager of Robinson-Humphrey in Charleston, was more blunt. "They've taken a lot of Nasdaq stocks out and shot them," he said. "This is what is known as a sharp correction. If you look back in history, April and May are bad months in the market," he said. Triggering the sell-off was a report that core consumer prices - factoring out energy and food - rose 0.4 percent last quarter, or double what had been projected. "We don't see core inflation as a long-term issue," said Zimmerman, who remains bullish. "People who are shrewd ought to get their shopping bags out. They can buy some good stocks in the next couple of weeks at pretty good prices," he said. Kent Colwell, who manages the Charles Schwab office in Mount Pleasant, said he had more activity Friday from investors wanting to open Individual Retirement Accounts before the Monday tax deadline than worried about the market. "This truly validates the principals to stick to. You diversify. You don't hold all investments in tech stocks," he said. Still, Colwell acknowledged the market could get worse before it gets better. "It may not be the bottom." But he said fundamentally, the market and economy are strong. Richard Kasprak, manager of the Mount Pleasant office of Offerman & Co., said that the market frenzy was caused by "a lack of buyers, precipitating a major sell-off. I knew we would have trouble when clients wouldn't own good companies like John Deere and Navistar. They turned their noses up on quality." But Kasprak said the sell-off is "a normal event throughout history. There will be some people disappointed but I'm sure years from now the rate of return in the market will be above average," he said. In the past decade, the stock market has surged in volume as smaller investors have bought stocks through mutual funds or via 401(k) or other employee benefit plans. At the same time, the market's ebbs and flows have only occasional bearing on whether a company restructures its retirement and pension plans, said Todd Stephenson, president of Summerville-based Employer Benefits Strategies. "The employer will look to see if (the downturn) is prolonged. If employees are screaming at them, they look to change 401(k)s," he said.>> charleston.net

To: Jenna who wrote (93527)	4/15/2000 11:04:00 PM
From: Doug Robinson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Jenna, now I'm really confused. I just read the article that you mention on April 11th. They don't say anything concerning your comment "What about the buying of the beaten down leaders you mentioned just yesterday and 'patience'? " referencing the April 11th date. They never made that statement. At least I can't find it. The article on the 11th is primarily about the 1998 correction. Earlier points are warning investors, not recommending buying. Here's the earlier part of the text, written by Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily from the start. "Sometimes the hardest move for an investor is to do nothing at all. The Nasdaq has bounced back in three of the past four days, though in light volume. Beaten-down leaders are making a comeback, and many chipmakers are near their old highs. That doesn't mean the tech correction is over. The Nasdaq remains in a downtrend. Wait until the composite stages a follow-through day. That's a gain of more than 1% on higher volume, usually on the fourth to seventh day of an attempted rally. If the rally has legs, leading stocks should start breaking out of solid bases. Yet look around, and you'll see many techs are damaged goods. Most need several weeks at least to form healthy consolidations. This is a weak market, and may remain so for several weeks or months. Still, even in serious corrections bulls may best bears on any given day." It then goes on to talk about the 1998 correction. Finally, it says "Check the major averages every day in IBD's "General Market & Sectors" page. It doesn't indicate anywhere that they were recommending "the buying of beaten down leaders" as you indicate they did. What am I missing? What's the reference to " . . Beaten down leaders making a comeback" mean. It appears to me to mean nothing but you have taken the time to make this post so maybe you can explain what you mean in your editorial comments regarding that day. I'm not able to figure out what you are trying to say or what point you are making since it's quite evident that IBD is not recommending buying beaten down leaders. The reference to beaten down leaders making a comeback was totally true. Nothing else. What am I missing??? Maybe you are referring to another article. Please post it and that will clarify the situation Thanks.