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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t36 who wrote (22820)	4/15/2000 5:33:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

t36, im a lurker and fellow qcom shareholder/lover. Don't ever fall in love with a stock, not even Qualcomm. :) I wanted to ask you about ... the comment about the earnings being built into the price of the stock. Please let me know how you and the g&k's view this comment. The stock is priced at a PE multiple of about 3 1/2 times the currently estimated growth over the next couple of years. In that sense I think it's fair to say that the past earnings history and ramifications for the near-term future might already be priced into the stock. G&Kers look further out than the next 18 months reflected in the earnings estimates. With a PSR of 18, increasing profit margins and new markets being opened at the same time existing markets are being expanded, I don't think the stock is overvalued right now. It's just my opinion, but it's not often that I feel that way about the Gorillas in my portfolio. :) I was under the impression qcom was going to have blow out earnings this qrt. Where did you get that impression and how do you define "blowout?" I think there is a decent chance estimates will be at least slightly exceeded. Management appears to have a history of "managing" earnings and estimates in such a way as to avoid disappointing analysts and investors. Recent evidence of subscriptions in parts of the world suggest that calendar Q1 subscriptions might be higher than Q4, whereas Q4 is historically a good quarter due to gift-giving seasonality. This is also good news in light of last quarter's guidance by management that this quarter might be soft. That calendar Q4 CDMA subscriptions was less than I had hoped leaves room for the possibility that seasonality will be less of a factor going forward and that the quarter about to be reported will be a pleasant surprise compared to expectations. --Mike Buckley