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To: pinhi who wrote (13800)4/15/2000 11:48:00 PM
From: Ex-INTCfan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 35685
 
Before you go and change your investment plans, I should give you a little information on why CSCO would be the one stock I would choose if I could select only one. I am not trying to pick a home run here. If I could own only one stock, it would have to be one that had tremendous promise, a proven business model, and a special space. It also would have to be one that, even if there were an extended downturn, would weather the storm with large percentage revenue increases each year. I don't pretend to completely understand the technology, but about 3.5 years ago I asked some tech people who, among other things, installed networks, what they thought about CSCO vs COMS -- they were hands down in favor of CSCO. (I should mention that most of the techies I know also are nuts about Novell. The problem with Novell is that MSFT has the managements of most large firms in their hip pockets. Perhaps in the future this will change if such techies move up in their organizations, but anyone who competes with MSFT is at risk. When I worked there in 93-94, their targets were Lotus and Novell. What happened to Lotus and Novell over the next few years?)

Until a year ago, my answer to your questions would have been MSFT. I still keep 10% or so of my portfolio in MSFT, mostly because of the quality of the management and the people. Recent events have conspired to make MSFT dead money for the near term. I still think it is an easy triple from here over the next three years.

If I had to pick a stock that I thought could make me the MOST MONEY over the next two years, I'd probably go with JDSU -- but that is not my key criterion for selection of a stock if I could "own only one." If it were, VIGN would be a consideration. I'm just now looking into NTAP for a potential home run. There are many others.

My second choice after CSCO probably would be ORCL.

I