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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Montgomery who wrote (7833)	4/15/2000 5:56:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

David, I didn't take the time to examine all the details of your analysis but I do believe using a 6% discount rate doesn't fully take into account the risk. Using such a low rate essentially says that you aren't demanding a premium to the super safe rates implicit in government-guaranteed long bonds. Considering my perception of the risk, I require a substantial premium. Using a range to include higher discount rates will change the results of your analysis dramatically as I'm sure you're aware. --Mike Buckley

To: David Montgomery who wrote (7833)	5/5/2000 7:30:00 PM
From: Turs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

David - try doing your calculation with revenues and see how ridiculous the answer is. Okay, I'll do it for you. It means CTXS would have $31B in revenue in year 10! So, it grow to be bigger than Microsoft! Not bloody likely. CTXS is not even growing 50% NOW. Though it's possible this company will hit the wall within a few years (things change), the growth rate you should be using is more likely 20% over 10 years. Or scale it down from 40% now to 20% within 4 years. Either way, the stock ain't undervalued, it's overvalued. Turs