To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (375 ) 4/15/2000 9:01:00 PM From: C.K. Houston Respond to
<I debated the Y2K subject with you for 2 years, and what happened when we rolled over....NOTHING. Y2K was the biggest over hyped non-event in the history of man. >I've been in cash since last summer because I was concerned about Y2K and the money the Fed was printing and pumping into the market in anticipation thereof. Lowered collateral requirements BIG time. Now they want it back. Take a look at all high-tech charts from Oct-Jan, and you'll see what I'm talking about. All they did was go straight UP. And now they're all falling to same or lower levels in a matter of days. It wasn't just because of daytraders. It was because of that added liquidity in the market. And, it wasn't the little guys who had the money or leverage to drive up these stocks. But it was the little guys who got left holding the bag. Giant Ponzi scheme IMHO.Remember, my biggest concern re Y2K was oil & gas production and refining? Hmmmm. Guess those problems with oil & gas past few months had only been OPEC related and had nothing to do with increased refining and pipeline problems since the beginning of the year. I still tracked this stuff even though I didn't post.greenspun.com And I was concerned about supply chain problems. Guess these parts problems for high-tech stuff ... are only related to increased demand that all of these companies never anticipated ... and that quake in Taiwan.BTW - Have you noticed how many stock exchanges throughout the world have been down, off and on, the past few months? Check this out (weed thru the ones at the beginning about current market conditions - rest of the articles are about shut-downs and computer failures at various markets since beginning of year.):greenspun.com We have never had a series of computer problems like this previously affecting exchanges throughout the world. Hurt a lot of "investors"/"speculators" ... and helped some. Made me very uncomfortable that markets in this volatile period could be shut down because of inaccurate data being transfered or because electrical or hardware problems cause a hard shut-down. And it's not just the little guys ... big guys are being affected too. Doesn't give me warm fuzzies.Have you noticed how many companies recently have had to re-state or delay stating their earnings? Anyone with any common sense always knew that problems wouldn't show up with accounting stuff until after the 1st quarter. Maybe all this stuff has just been a coincidence and has absolutely nothing to do with 2K. Maybe it has. Maybe it hasn't. Maybe the remediation caused more problems. Who knows? I surely don't. I don't care. Does it really matter? I've gone on with my life and am happy I took precautionary measures. I haven't dwelled on this Y2K stuff for AGES. I've been enjoying myself. I never anticipated catastrophic failure and the end of the world as we knew it. Though you got great joy out of calling me a "doomer". But, I wanted myself and my family/friends to be prepared for problems. I have no regrets. I didn't buy any strange stuff. What I bought I've been using ... and have had very small grocery bills:-) Plus because I thought supply chain problems would ultimately result in higher prices ... I made as many capital improvements on my home last year as I could. If inflation is truely here - guess that was a good call.I'll give you one good reason I'm THRILLED that there were no big infrastructure failures at the beginning of the year. I had my cash all over the place. Several banks and brokerage firms. And, a safe in my home. WELL ... 2 weeks ago when the market started to fall ... I thought I'd better get that cash out of my safe. Lo and behold - the combination didn't work!!!! I called the safe company and they told me that they tumblers were probably off and it happens more frequently than people realize. Three phone calls over several days, and they gave me a total of 21 combinations to try. They told me if the last set didn't work, the next time I called I should have quotes from 3 locksmiths to have the safe drilled open. They'd reimburse me for locksmith charges and send a new safe within 2 weeks.On Friday, April 14th ... as the market was plummeting ... I called the safe company with my 3 quotes. It took an hour to get thru to them. Before it was a matter of minutes. Apparently others were thinking the same as I was and ran into the same problem .... OR people were running into margin calls and needed that cash. In retrospect, as frustrated as I was, I'm happy I ran into that problem. Otherwise I might have used that cash to catch falling knives. Cheeky - I'm happy you posted to me. I was thinking of going back into the market Tues or Wed with major positions. I think now, after what I wrote just now ... I'll wait. Laugh if you want. But I haven't been hurt by this market down-turn ... while many others have.
