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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (446)	4/16/2000 12:03:00 AM
From: SJS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Franz, It been a long week, and it's late but I think that I'd rather respond subjectively vs quantitatively right now. From the 50K foot view, we might both agree that .com mania, and then biotech mania, and to some degree (and I have ALOT of semiconductor stocks.....) semiconductor mania, all drove some of these stocks to dizzying heights. True on some of those you mentioned. Yes.....way above their MA averages, way above their overall growth rates, and way above what some of them would earn or deliver for return/year 5 years into the future! We played a little bit of chicken up there, and some analysts were also a little irresponsible by "hawking" some of these stocks. How about QXL? Rediculous price target and rediculous analysis. Undefendable, in my opinion. So...we're not talking as much about PMCS or BRCM or JDSU or even AMCC (and I owned them all this week), but others. Now it seems that these semi stocks were in the crosshairs too. I watched TXCC blow away their numbers, and get crushed. I watch PMCS do the same thing. So now.....I believe these companies were a little toppy too, but they are much more compelling now. But my definition of compelling is subjective too. If people STILL think they're overpriced here, they will continue to go down. I will let both emotion and intelligence guide me here. More of the former right now, because I can't stand in there with my financial resource and scream "its compelling, I'm buying" and get crushed by people who "don't think so!". You're about to see a huge balancing act sometime next week. Balancing fear, greed, valuation and trust. When people start buying, I guess we've found that level for the ST! Then we'll adjust it up from there. It will be an interesting exercise to note at what level some of these stocks stabilize. The number will be crunching that nite on analyst's models, for sure. Regards and stay liquid! Steve