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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (93539)	4/15/2000 9:50:00 PM
From: WaveSeeker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 120523

What Could Go Right Sometimes it's better to be lucky than smart - vacation last week in a warm locale and cash in the trading account. Having been spared the heartache of every dying tick, I went to the New York Times business section and calmly circled the ten most enticing stocks for the long side. Tossing aside the CPI, the hedge fund selling, the margin calls (all reminiscent of the summer '96 and fall '98 bottoms), I decided to list the positive yang to counteract the negative yin of the carpet-bombing media. 1. Interest Rates Yes, the short-term trend is up. The long-term bond yield is 5.78%. Gold anyone? No thanks. Money market? Pass. 2. The Economy CPI number comes in at 0.7%. Fuel and energy rose as expected, core increase by 0.2%. Rampant inflation? One number does not a trend make. Kind of like looking at a chart with one bar and deciding whether to buy or sell. The stock market itself may be the gating factor here for the economy. 3. Valuations Ah, now we're talking. First on the list: EMLX. Now trading at a price/book value of 8, that's less than the 11 for the S&P 500. Growth rate of 72% compared to the 21% for the S&P, forward P/E now 40 or so. Pretty good for a growth stock, or should I say VALUE stock. How about ARBA? Growth of only 342% and the gorilla of B2B electronic commerce. Now at 25% of its lifetime trading range (low of 20, high of 180). Nobody wants to be a Polyanna in this type of environment, and yes you'll hear "don't fight the tape", "the trend is your friend", ad nauseum, but as a trader, there are times to put a stake in the ground statistically speaking. Monday or Tuesday may prove to be one of those times. The severity of this decline and the one-sided nature of this market (the inability of market makers to take the other side) actually begs the question - How easy will it be to get shares on the way up? WS