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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (13253)	4/15/2000 9:14:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 15132

My conservative hedging of being short the S&P while much of my underlying portfolio was NASDAQ oriented showed its weakness this week. While being doubled up on my S&P short until I covered my SPY short on Friday, it only decreased my huge loses by 1/3 for the week. I felt somewhat compelled to cover my SPY short as with my underlying stuff crashing I had to stay away from margin danger. Now I'll just sit with my Ultrabear 2beta short S&P fund as a hedge. I had been doing so well early on when the NASDAQ was outperforming the S&P that I couldn't muster up the courage to partly short the NASDAQ 100. Sorry if this is a bit obnoxious as I see a lot of sharp people on other boards I follow got wiped out in margin calls. Guess I'll have to start buying some SPAM(the mystery meat one) and cancel my weekly caviar delivery for a while. The problem I keep in mind is that we are not even yet at bear market numbers for the S&P. In fact if my figures are right we are only down 7.7% ytd in the S&P so we may be only very early in a bear market process. Bob's model has predicted S&P likely down greater than 20% which of course could mean 30%, 40% or who knows what. That is why he made a point of saying he will be in no hurry to get back in until his indicators turn positive. If we go through the 6-18 month bear market process a big fat attitude adjustment will slowly take shape. The always buy the dip mentality will get painfully washed away. The always fully invested mentality of most, including some who tried to set up shop on BB.com will be washed away. Years of multiple expansion may get washed away. Since my hedging may be inadequate I may have to stand heavy losses along the way. While I may get bloodied and bowed I won't be broken apart or destroyed and should be able to live to fight another day, thanks to Bob's advice. There will undoubtedly be nice fat rallies along the way. Whether they be sucker rallies or true rallies we will all have to decide. I plan to get an all clear sign from Bob before getting aggressive. marc

To: marc ultra who wrote (13253)	4/15/2000 9:23:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 15132

Marc: Re: "Too bad Bob nuked the BB.com discussion thread. It would have been interesting watching the evolution of a bunch of people sorely in need of an attitude adjustment." Nah, they would never show their face for any kind of attitude readjustment <g>.