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Biotech / Medical : ImmunoGen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Starfish* who wrote (3025)	4/16/2000 12:21:00 AM
From: Sea Otter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5665

Agreed, Mr. Starfish. Of course, not everyone has been hanging out in this stock as long as us. That can make for a difference in attitude. Congrats on your shorts - what a week to be short! As you know, I never short. But this is one time I really wish I had made an exception. Also agree about this correction being good, longterm, for the internet/tech stocks. You know, there was so much garbage out there being hyped by traders. Usually they don't even know what they've bought (sometimes on margin). It sounds harsh, but we'll all be better off once these stocks and their "investors" get plowed under, leaving room for the real firms that have real prospects. About IMGN. I've been reviewing my logic. Here is why I think our prospects for great wealth are good this year: 1) The science. If TAP works at all, I believe it probably works 100%. Binary. That is, it is quite credible that we will get a PI/PII report stating 90-100% cures over a dozen or so patients. If this happens that would be almost totally unique. Most P1/P2 reports give very small margins of improvement, if at all. That's why we have Phase 3s, to test these improvements across a large patient base to see if there is statistical meaning. Many drugs fail at this point, and we discover the "improvement" in P2 was just a fluke. However, if we get 90-100% response across a handful of patients that will be statistically meaningful by itself (the chance of a sample handful of terminal cancer patients miraculously healing being nil). So, if we get such results, we won't need no stinkin' Phase 3. The pharmas will immediately see the value and bid for the firm. And so will the market. The Phase 3 will be a formality - like it is, to a lesser extent, for IMCL. 2) Side-effects. I've always felt this was our biggest risk item. Companies cure cancer all the time. The problem is that they kill the patient in the process. It appears that we've scored a home-run on this item. If true, that there is basically no side-effects up to a high MTD, then our probability for success goes way up. Also, it's interesting to note that we can tolerate some pretty major side-effects and still have a great drug. NBIX recently pulled their depression drug in P3 due to a 1-2% liver toxicity. Such an event wouldn't hurt us at all - after all, we're dealing with terminal cancer patients and not depressed people. So a 2% liver toxicity would be quite acceptable. As long as the cancer is cured, we've got lots of room for error, unlike most other biotechs. 3) Platform. How many other firms can target so many diseases with one bullet? It truly is amazing, this opportunity. I know you know all these things. Just thought I'd record them for posterity. Btw, I'm also stalking IMCL. Haven't added there for many months. But if the market tanks next week I may grab more shares cheap. IMCL will be way up end of year, little doubt about it. Glad you've profited from SYBB. I'm feeling smug about that one. If it gets back into $2s next week I'll certainly double up, then look to sell again at $10 on P3 runup. Sea Otter