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To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 9:07:00 PM
From: CAtechTrader	Respond to of 35685

Well said Volts!

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 9:47:00 PM
From: techguerrilla	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 35685

Options analysis (strike prices/time depreciation percents) Tom, the key question becomes which options on Monday. I know you like Network Appliance. But that can't be the only stock for which options present an attractive opportunity in this climate. Qualcomm has serious strength, too, and was only recently beaten up. JDSU remains a powerhouse. I see these as the "big three" worth pursuing now. JMHO. I think we should discuss, this evening, the various stocks that you think have strength for the April to late-summer time period and just how far out you think would be reasonable strike prices. NTAP: strike as far out as 80? QCOM: strike as far out as 160? JDSU: strike as far out as 125? Those are strike prices 60% out of the money. The time depreciation will not be severe on them in the first two months. Let's say we have five months of time on the options, applying the square root approach to time depreciation, these would be time depreciation percents for the five months. After the first month, 89.5% of the time premium would remain; after the second, 77.5%; after the third, 63.2%, and after the fourth, 44.7%. (Ballpark figures) Under these percents, I like the leverage of five-month-out options under the current market conditions. The leverage obtained and the modest time depreciation of the first two months (22.5%) make these very appealing. If you sincerely believe a rebound will be House-driven through May, great leverage can be obrtained this way. John

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 10:07:00 PM
From: zello	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Tom,I hope you are right my friend. Many people are scared stiff this weekend. This sell-off came right at tax-time. Could tax payments due on Monday have contributed to the huge sell-off last week? Alot of people are going to have to kick out $$ to pay for their huge capital gains accrued last year. One thing I don't understand is how interest rates rising doesn't further contribute to inflation? For example, one figure that came out Friday was that the price of rent has gone up which contributed to the core rate going up. However the Fed has raise rates 5 times in the last six months. Wouldn't higher borrowing cost eventually effect the cost of goods/services/housing etc.? It is the consumer who always ends up paying for higher borrowing costs not businesses. If interest rates are higher businesses price that into their products? Also, gasoline prices peaked last month and are now on the decline so that is behind us. Believe it or not I have been paying $1.09 for a gallon of regular gasoline (Fredericksburg, Virginia). Prices are falling here big time. There is no doubt that investor psychology has changed. However, to me it is absolutely unwarranted and because it is unwarranted there is nothing to fear. Many people have said that A. Cohen called the top...that is bull. If she had called a top why would she have only reduced her exposure by 5%? Her announcement, along with the Microsoft news helped cause the markets fall. It does seem, as you suggest, that this has been orchestrated. I just remembered the analyst who also reduced Microsofts revenues this past week. All of a sudden everyone is saying sell, sell, sell. Be safe and sell. That is absolutely ridiculous. Where is the logic? Sell positions you don't need the money right now for (either at a loss or so you can pay Alan Greenspud's salary this year) so you can buy back into the market when we tell you. After the market goes up 25% we hear "buy" again. Baloney! There has to be tons of cash sitting right now. Every professional manager on TV I have heard is talking about how much cash they are sitting on waiting to get back in. That would seem to me that when the buying starts it is going to be quite awesome because everyone will want to back in before the prices go back up to their highs or at least support levels (since so many quality companies are far below them). What amazes me about last week was that every single day we were down (not even one day of relief). I am also amazed that all the pundants are saying the market is going down even more. How much of their own gains are they wanting to wipe out? Perhaps none because they are not selling. I would think that pre-market will be ugly and it will scare the "insides" out of a lot of people (particularly those who are new at investing or getting margin call day after day and already scared stiff) causing more selling so the houses can buy at rock bottom at the open and like you said reduce outstanding margin. Unfortunately, the media plays on the negativity and heightens the fear. The question is...what will be the catalyst to change market psychology? My guess is that EARNINGS, EARNINGS, EARNINGS, by the tech. heavyweights (Microsoft, Intel, Cisco, Americal Online, Qualcomm, and JDS Uniphase) will bring everyone back to their senses. The good thing is that, like politics, sentiment changes quickly. For better, or in the case of last week, for worse. Tim

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 10:19:00 PM
From: 993racer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

"Watch the futures, if the futures are say down 85 or so Sunday night, I could be wrong, I bet they won't be. I also say we have an extremely benign opening that stuns everybody" Shouldnt we expect the far east and europe to be crashing...in turn driving the naz futures down? Where can 1 check the futures on Sunday night? thanks racer (a deer caught in the oncoming headlights)

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 10:48:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 35685

>Now let's all go back up to the porch and have some lemonade. ROTLMAO. You've got the speech patterns of a typical cult leader down perfect, voltaire. It always saddens me when people such as you are able to attract those who are unable to think for themselves. One can only hope they snap out of their paralysis and regard you with a critical eye, and realize they're being led to slaughter by someone who sincerely, honestly, really cares about them and would never front run trades.

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 11:01:00 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 35685

Voltaire, margin requirements are set by the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Reserve Board, under laws passed by the United States Congress. The regulations are quite complex. As a layman, it's no surprise that you don't understand them. Your understanding of securities law is woefully inadequate. You are, no doubt, well-intentioned. However, you are out of your depth now. Selah.

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/15/2000 11:14:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Well, V, I gotta agree with a lot of what you speculate. I think the houses are in trouble, as much if not more so than the individual investor. And I agree they will try to orchestrate the type of scenario you are suggesting. However, I don't think the houses are themselves the instigators of this mess. They only operate through nearsighted greed, and got caught this time. The cause is much higher, and more global, at the U.S. Fed and IMF levels. They have been pumping an pimping this economy for many years now, and a lot of chickens are coming home to roost. The houses were bit players that tried to take advantage of the situation. Let's see how they get out of this one. There's gonna be a lot of 'spaining to do.

To: Voltaire who wrote (13841)	4/16/2000 2:26:00 AM
From: freeus	Respond to of 35685

Oh I hope and pray you are right about MOnday but I fear we are going to need something a lot stronger than lemonade to get through the morning until noon or so (Pacific time). The last hour may be good: if it isn't and if Tuesday isn't good (tax selling will be well and truly over) than I fear we are all in BIG trouble if we have any shares of anything still long. Must admit I expected a tech sell off-it comes every spring- but I didn't expect it until after earnings and I didn't expect a bear market. Still say Msft harrassment and interest rates are doing it. We'll see. God bless all of us and good luck Monday! Freeus