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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (106025)	4/16/2000 9:11:00 AM
From: hmaly	Respond to of 1575974

Chuck Re...<<<<Then I read is stuff about only being able to supply 60% of the demand. Either the article was bogus, demand is unbelievable or Intels gonna miss.>>>>>> Chuck, I wouldn't believe for a minute the 60% part. There would be one helluva shortage out there if this was true; but I don't see any other than Intels problems with > 800 mhz. But most people buy lower end computers anyway. Secondly even if there was a shortage, Intel would really benefit, as prices would be high enough in low end to make up difference, if there really was that big of shortage. I believe the author is really trying to say that 60% of the oems are experiencing some shortages; not that Intel is only suppling 60%. <<<<<<<<<<<One clear sign that could tell if Intel is having problem is to look at the IABG top line. If Intel meets earnings marginally but seriously falls short on the top-line that could mean that some of the revenue was pushed out to Q2 to make Q2 look better. I would be looking at that number very closely (and also any accounting gimmicks that try to distort that number) >>>>>>>> The trouble here is that without knowing the numbers behind the top line; it will be difficult to determine if Intel is short on top end mpus. For instance, with a shortage, Intel is able to raise prices on celerys, thus giving you a good top line; whereas the numbers on top end Coppermines might be dismal. Without breaking down the numbers, and because Intel never gives the breakdown; it is unlikely we will ever know the severity of shortage on top end. <<<<Even if there is a problem it is probably something that will have impact on Q2. If the rumors are true, Intel would have a really bad Q2 since there is already a significant problem with ASP erosion something that will probably get worse once ThunderBird showsup.>>>>>>>> I seriously doubt that earnings problems will show up until 3q-00, as Intel can continue shortage until Dresden starts to put out volume, and by then Willy might be here. Willy probably won't have the production problems coppermine has, and if Intel gets away from Rambus,should solve shortages. I believe it is like the farming situation where when the U. S. has great crops the farmers suffer because of low prices and vice versa.