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To: the hube who wrote (22829)	4/16/2000 12:37:00 AM
From: the hube	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Voice over IP Telephony -- GG Analysis Lucent, Cisco, Hitachi, Nortel, Intel, Broadcom and many others use VxWorks as the underlying OS for their internet telephony offerings. Page 140 of the FM discusses the high tech value chain, and states that "Tornadoes occur when--and only when-- a new value chain comes into existence. A value chain is a linked set of products and services that delivers something of value to an end customer... The beginning of a value chain...is where the product offerings get assembled. It is typically made up of technology providers, component manufacturers, subsystem assemblers, all leading up to a product offer. This is the domain of product architectures, and where the gorillas live. Everyone else in the chain, however, must cooperate for these architectures to get adopted." The end of the value chain is the customer side--the technical buyers, the end users, and the economic buyers. The middle of the chain is occupied by service providers who help integrate multiple products into systems, then sell and support the systems, and help install the new systems and train the end users. By being designed in as the reference platform for so many of the leading companies involved, it is unlikely that any new company offering an IP Telephony solution would exclude VxWorks. Make no mistake about it, VOIP is a discontinuous innovation. From the customer (end user) side, there may not be much of a difference at all. They will still be using a telephone to make phone calls. The only real difference is that they will see a drastic reduction in or elimination of their long distance bill. Additionally, from a business perspective, there are many other benefits such as integration with email, video and other services. I don't know when it will tornado, but I do know that it will, as the advantages are so overwhelming compared with the current switched network. The FM asks the following four questions regarding whether a market will go into hypergrowth: Can this value chain develop into a tornado mass market? For the reasons stated above (free long distance and integration with other services) I will answer yes. If so, what conditions are holding it back? Are these constraining conditions likely to be removed? I think in the home market, the current lack of penetration of broadband access is holding it back. However, that is changing, and should largely not be a problem in the next few years. On the business side, I think the main issues are quality of service(QOS) and availability of second, third and later generation end products. Again, I see these issues as being largely solved over the next couple of years. QOS has become an important part of the value chain, and most of the current end products (telephones and office level switches) are currently in the beta or first generation stage, with additional products to follow. It is inconceivable to me that Lucent, Intel, Cisco or Hitachi would drop their plans for such a large market opportunity after only a first generation product. And now, for the million dollar question...If so, when is the last remaining constraint likely to be removed, and by whom? I think when is probably easier to answer than by whom. My guess is that we will start to see a series of high profile deals with large corporations in an industry such as banking, multinational accounting firms or stock brokerages that is already highly wired and has very high long distance charges. The headlines could go something like this "Cisco and Merril Lynch announce agreement to wire all worldwide ML offices for IP Telephony. Program expected to save ML $50 million annually." I believe Cisco has already announced plans to convert all of their telecommunications to an IP mode. Since they are essentially using themselves as a beta site, I don't think it has much value as a last remaining constraint. Once the systems are considered reliable and available, my guess is that adoption will be rapid. Page 164 of the FM discusses when to invest in enabling technologies. "A good signal to begin tornado buying is when trade magazines stop printing articles questioning the readiness of a new technology for prime time and start printing ones focused on who is the market leader. The following search results from CMP, sorted chronologically, show that the coverage is starting to move in that direction. informationweek.com In summary, I think that VOIP is ready to tornado, and that VxWorks is one of the key enabling technologies that will benefit from the tornado.

To: the hube who wrote (22829)	4/16/2000 12:50:00 AM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I can't think of a single vendor targeting the VOIP market that doesn't offer a port to VxWorks (I'm sure there probably are some; please let me know if you know of any). They may offer also ports to other OS's, but not at the exclusion of VxWorks. In me next post, I will offer my gg analysis of the VOIP market. looking forward to the read. i am very interested in voip and started my own dd before i left. in fact, if i recall correctly either uf, eric or someone asked me to help someone who offered to work on just that subject...i did....but heard nothing since...i decided to let it go for now. i am particularly interested, personally, in wind's vxworks role in the entire embedded market. and, if anyone other than wind offers a complete design system...negating the need for every company using embedded processors to have a software design staff. i understand those guys are getting hard to find. voice has had my attention...ever since i heard gates say that voice will make the keyboard obsolete.