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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (8955)	4/16/2000 4:24:00 AM
From: jack bittner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

ot. re qcom. possible snub in Japan. lost contract in china. 75% of world is gsm. cdma has 20% of market which's predicted to grow to 25% of market, while gsm predicted to fall to 70%. all over next 2-3 years. growth from 20 to 25% is growth of 25% (5/20) over say 3 years or 8.3% a year for cdma/qcom. how does one get 100x earnings, or whatever it is now, or even 50 x earnings with 8.3% growth. gsm has the momentum of the installed base. sheer human inertia. why bother changing if my cellphone works. i'll access my computer when i get home. how many of us need to access the computer while walking through the woods or making love? and when the patents run out in 2003, revenue growth falls off. finally this is a firm with one arrow in its quiver: cdma. a very well-developed technology operated by a very bright entrepreneur. does everyone need it? conversely everyone has already decided they need fiber optics and the internet. why sweat out a stock that carries all this baggage, when there will be bargains galore like jdsu, sunw, pmcs and on and on.