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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (2800)	4/16/2000 8:17:00 PM
From: Mad2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Hi Carl, My concern is more selling pressure(margin and equity mutual funds that individuals can move out of), rather than buyers. Problem with the run of the last 5 months, is the very high percentage of equity owners as compared to money on the bench........the shorts will eventually help out as they cover, unfortunatly as a group they have a lot of ground to reclaim. A lot of people are still very profitable in the stock market, and are going to be buying up stuff. . The latest reporting period indicates money flow into equity funds was positive (down to around 1 bil). With self-directed 401k's and so forth, a risk we face is a run on the market (as opposed to the 29's style run on the bank). As I've posted before the market averages are very sensitive to this flow of funds. Basic problem is still valuations the market has priced in +15% growth, at a time the economy clearly needs to catch its breath. I think Greenspan said last week the fed has no intention of rescuing the market, so we should not expect rates to come down in the face of a faltering stock market. Comments from guys like John Bollinger and other respected technical analyst's commenting on dammage to the market (I think he's refering to the nasdaq's close below 3650 on Friday......opening up the possibility of 2700-2900 soon), lead me to wonder if and when money might start flowing out of the equity funds, creating a real bear. Well I'll just wait for the dust to settle and focus on buying low (cheap) and selling high/expensive garbage. Just a muse of an Irishman waiting for the next potato famine. Another exciting week comming up in the worlds greatest casino and now national pastime gambling (I mean investing) on Wall Street. mad2

To: Bilow who wrote (2800)	4/16/2000 8:24:00 PM
From: marcos	Respond to of 3543

Carl, that's what i was thinking - short-term bottom an hour after the open on Tuesday, following a close-but-fails rally on Monday ... after that i dunno, gonna be cautious ... though i do have some cash coming this week and intend to spend it selectively. What is the best indicator of the PPT in action, a volume spike in S&P options? ... calls, i mean ... Lord help us if they load up on puts, lol

To: Bilow who wrote (2800)	4/20/2000 4:33:00 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 3543

Hi all; Re the stock market crash that just didn't happen... I've observed that the predictions that are mostly likely to work, for the short term, is a return to mean. Since stocks have been kind of pricey recently, the mean is kind of high. On the long term, stocks are way too expensive, and eventually we will return to the long term mean (and exceed it to the downside). But that is something that deserves a long term prediction. If you want to trade the market day to day, you have to make your predictions assuming the day to day averages. My own guess for the mega bear is that it happens when the feds finally have to start raising interest rates high enough to put people out of work. I know that the tradition is for market crashes in advance of high unemployment, but this is a classic bubble, and bubbles do not burst because of people's ability to understand what long term means are. Bubbles burst because people are forced to take money out of the market, and that is only going to happen when mom and pop have to dig into their retirement savings. -- Carl